We have a 7 game MLB slate tonight with a handful of good pitching options and a few standout offenses to target. This article will analyze every team in a game by game format.
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San Diego Padres at New York Yankees (-179) 8
Dylan Cease at Max Fried
Weather: Chance for rain. Looks okay right now. Keep an eye on it.
San Diego
- It hasn’t worked out for Nick Pivetta or Michael King, but maybe it’ll work for Dylan Cease. Cease is tonight’s talented pitcher facing the Yankees at relatively low projected ownership.
- New York ranks 11th in K% against RHP this season and most of their high strikeout guys are clustered at the top of the order, which is good for Cease’s ceiling
- Stuff+ and K% are both down so far this season. Stuff+ from 109.8 to 106.9 and K% from 29.4 to 25.3% from last season to this season
- Cease has been unlucky this season with a .350 wOBA allowed compared to a .334 xwOBA and a 5.61 ERA compared to a 4.24 xERA. The issue is that, while unlucky, neither of those underlying numbers are particularly good.
- The plus side for Cease is that he is a good strikeout pitcher and there is plenty of upside here. It is just an extremely volatile spot.
- Tough matchup for the bats, but they probably deserve a bit more than the non-existent ownership that they are getting on a 7 game slate. They are still playing in Yankee Stadium after all
- .118 xISO to RHH and .113 xISO to LHH for Fried. No clear splits to target so just look to the best overall hitters if rostering SD hitters
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Dylan Cease, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado
New York
- Interesting spot for Max Fried.
- On the positive side, he is a really good pitcher with a 3.41 xFIP since the start of last season. He has a 3.28 xERA so far this season and has held opponents to a .297 xwOBA. The Padres are neck and neck with the White Sox for the lowest implied run total on the slate.
- The negative side is that Fried isn’t a great strikeout pitcher, especially for a $9,500 price tag, and the Padres are an extremely difficult strikeout matchup. Fried has a 21.5% K% so far this season and 22.9% since the start of last season. The Padres’ active roster has the fifth lowest strikeout percentage against LHP since 2023.
- The volatility mentioned for Cease carries over to the bats as well. If Cease is on top of his game, it is a bad spot for everyone- except, I guess, Aaron Judge, since he is apparently the best hitter to ever walk the Earth. If Cease continues to pitch like he has to date, however, it’s a good spot for Yankees stacks.
- Lefties have done the bulk of the damage to Cease with a .175 xISO since last season and a .256 xISO so far this season. RHH have a .120 xISO this season and .137 since the start of last season.
Top Plays: Max Fried, Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham
Secondary Plays: Ben Rice, Austin Wells
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays (+125) 8
Cristopher Sanc
Weather: Little bit of rain around. Should be fine.
Philadelphia
- Cristopher Sanchez has the second highest projection in the Run The Sims projections tonight and he is only $7,500 on DraftKings. The Rays’ active roster ranks 11th in K% against LHP since 2023
- Sanchez has shown big improvements this season. Stuff+ has increased from 106.6 last season to 115.2 this season. K% has increased from 20.3% to 28.9%.
- Wind direction typically makes the Rays’ stadium play more neutral for home runs at night as opposed to being a great park for home runs during the day.
- Tough matchup for Philly bats against Shane Baz, who has made big improvements this season himself. Obviously we can always go to the Phillies in tournaments regardless of matchup because of their talent, but one thing that does stand out with Baz this season is that he has struggled with RHH
- He has replaced a lot of his slider usage from last season with a knuckle curve this season. Last season he struck out 23.7% of RHH with a .118 xISO allowed. This season he has only struck out 20.2% of RHH with a .216 xISO allowed.
- Unfortunately, most of the Phillies’ power comes from the left side of the plate and Baz has struck out 34.5% of LHH with a .084 xISO allowed so far this season.
- He has replaced a lot of his slider usage from last season with a knuckle curve this season. Last season he struck out 23.7% of RHH with a .118 xISO allowed. This season he has only struck out 20.2% of RHH with a .216 xISO allowed.
Top Plays: Cristopher Sanchez
Secondary Plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott
Tampa Bay
- Shane Baz has increased his Stuff+ grade from 102.3 last season to 110.1 this season. His strikeout percentage has increased from 21.6% to 26.1%. As mentioned above, he has been lights out against lefties so far which is a plus when you are facing a lineup that has Harper and Schwarber. Overall, the matchup is scary so Baz is a secondary option but he has plenty of upside.
- Yandy Diaz left last night’s game early so he may not be in the lineup tonight. If he is, he is relatively inexpensive at $3,900. That said, Sanchez has improved his change-up this season and turned it into an elite pitch that he can use to neutralize opposite-handed hitters. RHH have a .111 xISO and a 21.5% K% against Sanchez since the start of last season. This season they have a .120 xISO and have struck out 29.6% of the time.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Shane Baz, Yandy Diaz(Q), Junior Caminero
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-113) 7.5
Hunter Greene at Grant Holmes
Weather: Some rain around. Keep an eye on it but looks fine for now.
Cincinnati
- Happy Hunter Greene Day! Greene has a tough matchup but he has taken a big step forward this season (after taking a step forward last season as well). He already had excellent stuff with a 113.1 Stuff+ grade but he has increased it to 126 this season. His fastball velo has increased from 97.6 mph to 99.2 mph. His K% has jumped from 27.7% to 33.3%. RHH have a .134 xISO and 33.8% K% against him this season. LHH have a .231 xISO and 33% K%. The xISO for LHH is the only weakness that we can point to for Greene. He is our highest projected pitcher.
- Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz look like the best options from the Reds as usual. Their offense is a bit banged up overall right now with Austin Hays and Noelvi Marte both on the IL. Holmes has allowed more power to RHH than LHH so far in his brief career.
Top Plays: Hunter Greene
Secondary Plays: Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz
Atlanta
- Grant Holmes looks like a solid SP2 option at $7,400 on DraftKings. He has struck out 24.1% of hitters so far this season with an uptick in Stuff+ from 88.5 last season to 91.8 this season. Cincinnati’s active roster ranks 14th in K% and has a 101 wRC+ against RHP this season.
- The only case for the Braves is that they are low-owned and have good hitters against a 40% owned pitcher. Outside of that, it is tough to argue for them. It is worth noting Greene’s high xISO allowed to LHH since Matt Olson is a LHH with a ton of power.
Top Plays: Grant Holmes
Secondary Plays: Matt Olson
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-133) 9
Charlie Morton at Simeon Woods Richardson
Weather: Wind blowing in from left field
Baltimore
- Charlie Morton has been awful so far this season. He is only $5,000 and gets a positive park shift, but it is tough to want to get much of him given his performance so far. He has only struck out 19.4% of hitters, down from 23.8% last season, with a decrease in Stuff+ from 97.6 to 95.3 and fastball velo from 94.1 to 93.5 mph.
- Park downgrade for the Orioles’ bats but a nice matchup overall against SWR on a slate where most teams have difficult matchups.
- SWR has a .160 xISO to LHH and .195 xISO to RHH since start of last season. .250 xISO to LHH and .317 to RHH so far this season. He has had good luck to date, allowing a .355 wOBA with a .378 xwOBA and pitching to a 4.03 ERA with a 5.66 xERA.
- Cedric Mullins is due for regression but he has been excellent so far this season with a .355 xwOBA and .194 xISO against RHP.
- Adley Rutschman has a .353 wOBA and .216 ISO against RHP so far this season but his expected numbers are even better at .410 and .252, respectively.
- Ryan O’Hearn is one of the more underrated hitters in the league, quietly posting a .446 wOBA and .333 ISO so far this season in 77 PAs against RHP that is backed up by a .424 xwOBA and .277 xISO.
- Jackson Holliday has a .228 xISO and Heston Kjerstad has a .304 xISO against RHP this season. Ryan Mountcastle is at .191. Gunnar Henderson has actually been the worst of the currently healthy regulars at a still respectable .171.
Top Plays: Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman
Secondary Plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, Ryan Mountcastle
Minnesota Twins
- Talked about Simeon Woods Richardson a bit above but this is a scary matchup for someone that is having trouble limiting power and doesn’t have great swing and miss ability. That said, he is only $7,300 so he is a viable SP2 in large field GPPs if you need to pivot away from the more popular options in that range in a given lineup.
- Park upgrade for Charlie Morton but that won’t matter if he can’t pitch better than he has in his starts so far this season. RHH have a .205 xISO and .391 xwOBA against him while LHH have a .240 xISOand .387 xwOBA. He has been “unlucky” this season with an xwOBA allowed that is .045 points better than his actual wOBA allowed and an xERA that is 3.69 points better than his actual ERA. The problem is that the xwOBA is still .389 and the xERA is still 6.07.
- Byron Buxton has a .230 xISO against RHP so far this season and he also leads the team with 7 stolen bases. Morton has made improvements at controlling the running game in recent seasons, but Rutschman has allowed 20 of 23 potential base stealers to be successful this season after grading out as below average at preventing stolen bases in each of the last two seasons.
- Ryan Jeffers has above average power against RHP as well and is a solid value at a weak C position.
- Trevor Larnach projects as a strong value at $4,000 but does carry some PH risk as the Orioles have three lefties available in the bullpen. We have him projected for about a 15% chance of being pinch hit for in our projections.
- Carlos Correa has an xISO below .100 so far this season but his salary has decreased as a result and he is likely to improve that number going forward.
Top Plays: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Trevor Larnach
Secondary Plays: Ryan Jeffers, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-213) 8.5
Jonathan Cannon at Michael Wacha
Weather: Most weather risk on the slate. Forecast has improved since this morning. As it stands, I would play it and hope for the best but need more info later.
Chicago
- Jonathan Cannon has seemingly improved from last season with a jump in Stuff+ from 95.2 to 102.3 and an increased in K% from 17.2 to 19.6. That said, it’s tough to want to roster him tonight in a tough strikeout matchup in the second worst park for getting strikeouts.
- White Sox suck but they are probably going a bit underowned against a decent but not great pitcher in Michael Wacha.
- Wacha has allowed a .163 xISO to RHH and a .161 xISO to LHH so far this season. 20.3% K% to RHH and 16% to LHH.
- .173 xISO against RHP for Luis Robert and .195 xISO against RHP for Andrew Vaughn are the only two individual numbers that stand out as appealing from Chicago.
- Wacha is typically good at preventing stolen bases, allowing 5 or less every season since 2018.
- Robert has 15 stolen bases this season. Chase Meidroth is tied for second on the team with 3 despite only playing 15 games. While it is a downgrade for Meidroth, it is worth noting he is only $2,700 and has MPE.
- While the stolen base matchup is a downgrade for Meidroth, it is worth noting he is only $2,700 and has MPE. The same is true for Miguel Vargas.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Luis Robert, Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, Andrew Vaughn
Kansas City
- Michael Wacha is facing the White Sox at $8,200 so he is obviously a good play. He is currently projected for 20% ownership which is a bit higher than I would like given that this park isn’t good for strikeouts, but all in all it is a good spot.
- Wacha’s Stuff+ is down from 100.4 to 98.4 and his strikeout percentage has dropped from 21.2% to 18.1% so far this season.
- Similarly to Wacha, the Royals’ offense is clearly a good option but also probably going a bit overowned. As mentioned above, Cannon has shown some improvement so far this season.
- Cannon has only struck out 13.5% of RHH compared to 26% of LHH. Similar expected power numbers allowed with a .161 xISO to RHH and a .166 xISO to LHH.
- The lack of strikeouts to RHH plays into KC’s strengths as Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia and Jonathan India are all likely to be able to put the ball in play and take advantage of the spacious outfield.
- Salvador Perez has been the most unlucky hitter in baseball so far this season with a .297 wOBA compared to a .408 xwOBA.
- Tough stolen base matchup. Cannon has been average to above average at preventing steals so far in his career and Edgar Quero (projected catcher) has thrown out 4 out of 9 runners so far this season.
- KC’s lineup is ugly once you get beyond the top 4 but it also gets inexpensive so the point per dollar value of the stack increases. Cavan Biggio is hitting 5th and leads the team with a 24% chance of being pinch hit for.
- Chicago has three LHP in their bullpen. Only two of them are likely to be available as Cam Booser has pitched the last two days.
Top Plays: Bobby Witt Jr., Jonathan India, Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Wacha
Secondary Plays: Michael Massey, Cavan Biggio, Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel
Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies (+147) 10
Jackson Jobe at Chase Dollander
Weather: Some rain in the area. Looks like it should be okay.
Detroit
- Chase Dollander is probably going to be good eventually. The 2023 first round pick basically jumped straight from AA to the Majors, making just one start at AAA. That said, “eventually” is not “right now” and right now he looks like a pitcher that we want to target in Coors Field. He has been unable to limit quality contact through his first five starts, allowing a .338 xISO to LHH and a .286 xISO to RHH. These numbers are likely to improve just based on how extraordinarily bad they are, but that doesn’t mean it needs to happen today.
- Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene are extremely strong plays at salaries below $5,000 in Coors Field. Carpenter has a .322 xISO against RHP since last season while Greene’s is .233. The Rockies also only have one left-handed reliever in their bullpen.
- The Spencer Torkelson breakout seems to be here as he has a 151 wRC+ through 35 games this season with a .306 ISO (despite playing his home games in a tough park for hitting home runs). His .407 xwOBA is actually higher than his .381 wOBA so far this season as well.
- Gleyber Torres ranks in the top 10 in my metric that looks for hitters who have been unlucky and have also produced a high xwOBA. Torres has a .415 xwOBA this season compared to a .364 actual wOBA and gets a huge park shift here.
- Jackson Jobe is a top pitching prospect facing a terrible offense at $6,700. He is a viable secondary SP2 if you need to save salary, but pitching in Coors isn’t easy for anyone. So far, he has struggled with just a 17.6 percent strikeout percentage and 13.7 percent walk percentage through his first five starts this season.
Top Plays: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson, Andy Ibanez
Secondary Plays: Trey Sweeney, Javier Baez, Dillon Dingler, Jackson Jobe
Colorado
- The Rockies aren’t getting much ownership, even on a 7 game slate, since they absolutely suck. That said, they are playing in Coors Field against a rookie pitcher who has struggled to keep runners off base so far. There is some upside here since the Colorado hitters are so inexpensive. You can stack a side of Coors and have the best pitching and one-off plays around it.
- Brenton Doyle, Ryan McMahon, Hunter Goodman and Jordan Beck are the priorities if you are looking to go to Colorado.
- RHH have a .189 xISO and LHH have a .112 xISO against Jobe through 24 innings this season. LHH have also struck out 26.8 percent of the time compared to 11.5 percent of the time for RHH.
Top Plays: Brenton Doyle, Hunter Goodman
Secondary Plays: Ryan McMahon, Jordan Beck, Chase Dollander
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (+102) 8.5
Jose Berrios at Yusei Kikuchi
Weather: SoCal.
Toronto
- Jose Berrios is reasonably priced for a decent matchup against the Angels. He isn’t a top priority but is firmly in the SP2 mix at $8,500. The Angels’ active roster ranks 2nd in strikeout percentage against RHP this season and only has an 89 wRC+ now that Mike Trout is on the IL.
- Berrios has struck out 19.7% of hitters since last season with a 4.21 xFIP. So far this season he has a 21.1% strikeout percentage.
- Park is good for offense.
- 10-15% projected ownership for most of the Jays’ lineup and it is warranted in this park against Kikuchi. .170 xISO for RHH against the lefty since the start of last season and .244 so far this season
- George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero and Anthony Santander all .200+ xISO against LHP since last season. Bo Bichette is at .167.
- Alejandro Kirk is a strong value option at catcher at only $3,100.
Top Plays: Anthony Santander, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk
Secondary Plays: Bo Bichette, Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement
Los Angeles
- Very difficult strikeout matchup for Yusei Kikuchi. Viable option as a contrarian SP2 with negative correlation with the field at $7,600 but tough to have much confidence.
- Less ownership coming into the Angels than the Blue Jays, which isn’t surprising given the difference in talent between the two offenses. That said, it is still a good park for power and Berrios is far from an elite pitcher
- .232 xISO against RHH and .173 xISO against LHH so far this season. .184 against RHH and .175 against LHH since last season.
- Logan O’Hoppe, Taylor Ward and Jorge Soler all have an xISO above .200 against RHP since last season. Zach Neto isn’t far behind at .187.
Top Plays: Zach Neto, Taylor Ward
Secondary Plays: Jorge Soler, Logan O’Hoppe