Video Tutorial #
What the Player Prop Tool does #
The Player Prop Tool uses data from our latest run of 10,000 simulations of each NFL game to help you make over/under choices.
How to use the Player Prop Tool #
- Select a Player
- Only players who have projected market share for the current week are listed
- Select a Stat Category
- Set your betting line
- Adjust the Over/Under odds to match your sportsbook
- The odds default to -110. Leave this alone if you are playing something like Prize Picks or Thrive.
- Click Calculate
The tool will output a graph of the distribution of our 10,000 simulations vs the betting line you supplied, and a calculation of the implied odds, actual odds, and our guess of whether the over/user is a good/bad bet based on the Kelly Criterion.
Reading the Output #
What is the Kelly Criterion? #
Read more about the Kelly Criterion and how it is calculated on Wikipedia