MLB Deep Dive: Friday, May 9, 2025

We have a 12 game MLB slate tonight with plenty of quality pitching and several teams in ideal matchups. This article will analyze every team in a game by game format, highlighting the top options from each game.

USE PROMO CODE YOUDAMLB TO GET 10% OFF ANY RUN THE SIMS MLB PROJECTIONS PACKAGE BEFORE MAY 31ST!

MLB Deep Dive Friday, May 9, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays (+106) 9.5

Jose Quintana at Zack Littell

Milwaukee

• Zack Littell has allowed power to both sides of the plate since last season
  • .189 xISO to LHH and .197 xISO to RHH
  • 3^rd worst Stuff+ grade on the slate this season
• Tampa Bay’s temporary stadium is likely to be neutral for HRs at night and extremely favorable during the day because of wind direction. We saw last night that the ball didn’t carry particularly well but RF appears to be pretty easy to hit HRs to. Likely a bump for LHH in general.
  • Christian Yelich has a .197 xISO against RHP since last season and poses the best LH power threat.
• Brice Turang, William Contreras and Jackson Chourio project as strong plays as well.

Top Plays: Brice Turang, William Contreras, Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays: Jackson Chourio, Rhys Hoskins/Jake Bauers (would come with PH risk)

Tampa Bay

• Jose Quintana is one of the two pitchers throwing tonight that has a worse 2025 Stuff+ grade than Littell. .174 xISO to RHH so far this season and .159 since the start of last season. Sub 20% strikeout percentage in that split
• Best RH power bats for Tampa Bay:
  • Yandy Diaz: .406 xwOBA/.232 xISO in 327 PAs against LHP since 2023
  • Christopher Morel: .332/.223 in 272 PAs

Top Plays: Yandy Diaz

Secondary Plays: Christopher Morel, Danny Jansen

Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians (+109) 7.5

Aaron Nola at Gavin Williams

Philadelphia

• Aaron Nola comes in at a reasonable $8,300 salary on DraftKings and looks like a strong mid-range option.
  • Strikeout percentage is up from 24% last season to 26% this season but it is worth noting that his Stuff+ grade has dropped from 111.6 to 105.4. He has struck out between 6 and 8 hitters in every start but one so his improved strikeout numbers aren’t driven by any one fluky performance, but the drop in stuff is still something to at least keep in mind going forward.
  • Cleveland’s active roster ranks 21^st in K% and 15^th in wRC+ against RHP this season
  • A big concern for Nola is that Cleveland’s projected lineup only has one right-handed hitter. Since last season, Nola has struck out just 21.4% of LHH compared to 27.5% of RHH and he has allowed a .177 xISO to LHH compared to a .121 xISO to RHH.
    • So far this season, LHH have a .264 xISO and 23.7% K% compared to a .056 xISO and 28.9% K% for RHH
    • Keep in mind that Cleveland is the 8^th best park for LH home runs since changing the design of their upper deck last season.
  • Phillies are a viable large field GPP stack based on their talent, but there are plenty of better matchups to target than one with Gavin Williams.
    • 25% K% and .142 xISO allowed to LHH since last season and 23.5% K% and .176 xISO allowed to RHH

Top Plays: Aaron Nola

Secondary Plays: Bryson Stott, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Cleveland

• Gavin Williams will have his work cut out for him against a Phillies team that ranks 28^th in K% and 10^th in wRC+ against RHP this season. He is only $6,800, however, so he warrants SP2 consideration despite the matchup
  • 3% K% and 4.08 xFIP since last season. 25.3% K% in 32 IP so far this season with a slight uptick in Stuff+ from 101.4 to 102.1
• Left-handed power is Nola’s weakness and this is a good park to target it. That said, there are 24 offenses on the slate so looking for hitters against Nola is not going to be a priority.
• Best LH power bats on Cleveland:
  • Kyle Manzardo: .284 xwOBA/.197 xISO in 242 PAs against RHP since last season
  • Jose Ramirez: .320 xwOBA/.171 xISO in 610 PAs
  • Nolan Jones: .326 xwOBA/.172 xISO in 291 PAs
• Phillies have three lefties in their bullpen and they all pitched yesterday. None pitched the day before, but two of them are setup guys/closers. That leaves Tanner Banks who threw 27 pitches yesterday. If this game is competitive, there will be late game pinch hit risk for the Guardians but if they jump out to decent sized lead I would expect the Phillies to get Banks the day off and only use RHPs out of the bullpen.

Top Plays: Gavin Williams

Secondary Plays: Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo, Bo Naylor, Nolan Jones

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (-142) 8

Jameson Taillon at Clay Holmes

Chicago

• Not much interest in anything here. There is plenty of upside in the lineup thanks to a combination of power and stolen bases, but the park isn’t conducive to hitting home runs, the matchup isn’t ideal and the stack is relatively expensive.
• Clay Holmes has held LHH to a .105 xISO with a 21.8% K% and RHH to a .095 xISO with a 29% K% through his first 36.2 innings as a starting pitcher.

Top Plays: None

Secondary Plays: Kyle Tucker

New York

• Clay Holmes warrants some consideration as a mid-range SP option at $8,200. He has struck out 25% of hitters so far in his first season as a starter. The matchup against the Cubs is a difficult one, however, as they rank 18^th in K% and 6^th in wRC+ against RHP so far this season. Citi Field helps to downplay home runs, however, and the Cubs have a relatively low implied run total for the amount of talent that they have.
• Mets’ hitters don’t stand out as priorities in the context of the slate, but they do look a bit better than Cubs’ hitters.
  • Juan Soto remains inexpensive for his skillset at $5,200. We got two homers from him the other day and his .439 xwOBA would be the third best season of his career. In other words, we are getting a very good version of Soto at a discounted price tag thanks to a .266 BABIP that is 37 points below his career average.
    • One “issue” with Soto from a DFS standpoint is that he walks so often. Jameson Taillon has only walked 4.9% of hitters since the start of last season, however, so it is relatively likely that Soto gets pitches in the strike zone. Taillon isn’t a bad pitcher, allowing a .164 xISO to LHH since the start of last season, but I’m always happy to take my chances on the outcome of Soto putting the ball in play

Top Plays: Clay Holmes, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo

Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox (+131) 8.5

Max Meyer at Bryse Wilson

Miami

• Great matchup for Max Meyer, although he is priced all the way up to $10,200 on DraftKings.
  • White Sox rank 29^th in wRC+ and 5^th in K% against RHP this season
  • Meyer has struck out 28.1 percent of hitters in 39 IP this season, which is up from 18.5% last season. His Stuff+ has increased from 88.1 to 95.4 and his FB velo has increased from 94.1 to 95 mph. I’m not saying that I buy into him as a $10,000 pitcher in general, but he’s playable at this price in this matchup
• Marlins’ hitters are affordably priced in a good matchup against Wilson and a weak Chicago bullpen
  • .205 xISO allowed to LHH and .201 xISO allowed to RHH since last season. Sub 20% K% against both sides
  • Best Miami hitters:
    • Kyle Stowers: .338 xwOBA/.199 xISO in 267 PAs against RHP since last season
    • Jesus Sanchez: .365 xwOBA/.226 xISO in 479 PAs
    • Connor Norby: .311 xwOBA/.200 xISO in 180 PAs
    • Agustin Ramirez: .417 xwOBA/.310 xISO in 44 PAs
      • Very small sample size for Ramirez but he projects to be about a league average hitter overall with above average power
    • Xavier Edwards has a top 10 stolen base projection on tonight’s slate in the Run The Sims projections.

Top Plays: Max Meyer, Agustin Ramirez, Jesus Sanchez

Secondary Plays: Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards

Chicago

• Meyer’s glaring weakness this season has been a .254 xISO to LHH. He has struck lefties out 27.5% of the time, however.
  • Unfortunately, there is not a single power-hitting lefty on the roster

Top Plays: none

Secondary Plays: none

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (+106) 9

Hunter Dobbins at Michael Lorenzen

Boston

• Tough park for hitting home runs but a good park for offense overall
  • .144 xISO allowed to LHH and .207 xISO allowed to RHH by Lorenzen since last season. .182 xISO to LHH and .222 xISO to RHH so far this season
• Lorenzen has historically been average to above average at preventing stolen bases
  • Biggest impact on Jarren Duran and Trevor Story
• Rafael Devers has put up ridiculous numbers this season despite his slow start. .387 wOBA/.230 ISO and .435 xwOBA/.274 xISO in 125 PAs against RHP.
  • Alex Bregman: .286 xISO in 130 PAs
  • Khristian Campbell: .200 xISO in 111 PAs
  • Wilyer Abreu: .344 xISO in 122 PAs

Top Plays: Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers

Secondary Plays: Jarren Duran, Kristian Campbell, Trevor Story, Wilyer Abreu

Kansas City

• Hunter Dobbins projects as Just A Guy. Below average strikeout rate. Non-elite groundball rate. Below average stuff.
  • Only three starts so far this season but LHH have done damage with a .219 xISO
• It goes without saying that Bobby Witt, Jr. is a strong play if you can find the salary, but it is worth noting that Connor Wong has graded as above average at preventing stolen bases in each of the last three seasons.
• Vinnie Pasquantino has struggled this season but he is only $3,300 and still has a .190 xISO against RHP
• Salvador Perez has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball this season. In 124 PAs against RHP, he has a .405 xwOBA and .251 xISO compared to a .310 actual wOBA and .149 actual ISO.

Top Plays: Bobby Witt, Jr.

Secondary Plays: Salvador Perez, Jonathan India, Vinnie Pasquantino

Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (-195) 7.5

Nick Martinez at Hunter Brown

Cincinnati

• Hunter Brown is extremely good at pitching. He is not good at preventing stolen bases. This is similar to the spot against Chris Sale the other day where it is an elite stolen base matchup for the Reds’ base stealers if they get on base- but it is difficult to get on base
  • Elly De La Cruz has the highest stolen base projection on the slate. Matt McLain is 2^nd and TJ Friedl is 7^th.

Top Plays: None

Secondary Plays: Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain

Houston

• Hunter Brown was a good pitcher last season, striking out 25.1 percent of hitters with a 3.31 xERA and 3.47 xFIP. He has turned it up a notch this season, striking out 31% of hitters with a 3.03 xERA and 2.57 xFIP through his first seven starts. His 10.26 K/9 is up from 9.48 last season and almost identical to his 2023 season, but the big difference is that his strikeout percentage is over 4 points higher than 2023 thanks to a drop in BB% from 8.3 to 6.3. His 24.7 K-BB% is easily the best of his career so far.
  • In addition to the excellent numbers so far this season, Brown has also increased his Stuff+ from 104.6 to 111.2 and his FB velo from 96 to 97 mph.
  • The Reds’ active roster ranks 11^th in K% and 20^th in wRC+ against RHP this season
  • The only negatives for Brown are 1. the stolen base issue against a team that can take advantage and 2. he is $11,000 on a slate with 23 other pitchers so it is basically impossible for him to end up as a top point-per-dollar play (but he doesn’t have to be because we can always make it up with bats)
• Nick Martinez has allowed a .208 xISO to LHH in a limited sample this season, but only .142 since last season. Regardless, there isn’t any left-handed power on the Astros anyway. RHH have a .118 xISO since last season and a. 104 xISO so far this season

Top Plays: Hunter Brown

Secondary Plays: Jeremy Pena

San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins (-101) 9

Jordan Hicks at Chris Paddack

San Francisco

• Jordan Hicks has had some bad luck this season. He has allowed a .328 wOBA with a 6.03 ERA but only a .307 xwOBA with a 3.52 xERA. He has only struck out 20-21% of hitters since moving into the starting rotation last season so he isn’t a priority tonight, but he is only $7,400 and may be going a little overlooked as an SP2 because of his ugly surface numbers.
• Chris Paddack has allowed power to both sides of the plate since last season with a .193 xISO to RHH and a .204 xISO to LHH.
  • Target Field has been a top 10 park for home runs over the last 3 seasons with a 108 HR park factor. This is a massive upgrade for the Giants from Oracle Park which ranks dead last
  • Best SFG power bats:
    • Mike Yastrzemski: .322 xwOBA/.193 xISO in 481 PAs against RHP since last season
    • Willy Adames: .355 xwOBA/.237 xISO in 628 PAs
    • Matt Chapman: .338 xwOBA/.203 xISO
    • Heliot Ramos: .309 xwOBA/.187 xISO in 511 PAs
      • .344 xwOBA and .207 xISO in 116 PAs this season
    • The Twins only have one LHP in their bullpen. Danny Coulombe is very good, but Minnesota will still have to pick their spot so the pinch hit risk for Giants’ lefties is lower than it would be in other matchups

Top Plays: Matt Chapman, Willy Adames

Secondary Plays: Heliot Ramos, Mike Yastrzemski, Jordan Hicks

Minnesota

• Not much stands out here. Hicks has held RHH to a .103 xISO and LHH to a .089 xISO so far this season. .153 xISO to LHH and .145 xISO to RHH since last season

Top Plays: None

Secondary Plays: Byron Buxton

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies (+147) 11.5

Randy Vasquez at Antonio Senzatela

San Diego

• Padres should be the most popular team on the slate but, since there are 12 games, the raw ownership numbers shouldn’t be high enough to really be problematic.
• Limited sample since last season, but Senzatela has allowed a .228 xISO in 421 pitches thrown to LHH with just an 8.7% K%. RHH have a .337 xISO with a 14.1% K%
  • Fernando Tatis has a .381 xISO in 102 PAs against RHP this season and he is running more than he did last year (and it is intentional and by design). Not a good stolen base matchup, but he also has a .291 xISO in 422 PAs since last season.
  • Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth all have an xISO of at least .180 against RHP since last season as well.
    • Cronenworth has been out for the last month but was activated from the Injured List today and adds an important bat to their lineup which makes the stack more appealing

Top Plays: Fernando Tatis, Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth

Secondary Plays: Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, Anyone Else Playing

Colorado

• The Rockies may not have the same caliber of hitters as the Padres, but they still have a great matchup tonight in Coors. Randy Vasquez has struck out 13% of hitters with a 5.33 xFIP and 3.8% K-BB% since last season
  • Vasquez has DRASTIC splits since last season and so far this season they have held
    • Since last season, LHH have struck out 6.5% of the time with a .422 xwOBA and .224 xISO. This season, they have struck out 2.5% of the time with a .428 xwOBA and .277 xISO.
      • RHH since last season have struck out 18.9% of the time with a .329 xwOBA and .149 xISO. So far this season, they have struck out 15.95 of the time with a .348 xwOBA and .099 xISO
    • $3,700 Ryan McMahon is an absurd salary in this matchup. The negatives are that he plays the same position as Manny Machado and the Padres have three left-handed pitchers in their bullpen.
    • Michael Toglia is built for this matchup. He has a .246 xISO against RHP since last season but has also struck out 35.8% of the time. It’s almost impossible to strike out as a left-handed hitter against Vasquez, so we should get some hard contact from Toglia. He is also a switch-hitter which lowers his pinch hit risk later in the game.
    • Overall, the presence of the three lefties in the Padres’ bullpen is actually a pretty big deal here. Not only does it mean that McMahon is probably only going to have a favorable matchup twice in the game, it also means that other lefties in the lineup are likely to be pinch hit for once Vasquez leaves.

Top plays: Ryan McMahon, Michael Toglia

Secondary Plays: Brenton Doyle, Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (+126) 9.5

Tomoyuki Sugano at Kyle Hendricks

Baltimore

• Badly needed get right spot for the Orioles tonight against Kyle Hendricks, who has the worst Stuff+ on the slate. Hendricks has struck out 13.7% of LHH with a .351 xwOBA and .173 xISO allowed since last season. Baltimore’s projected lineup has six left-handed hitters and they all have plenty of power. Angel Stadium also has the 6^th highest HR park factor for left-handed hitters over the last three seasons
• Don’t let the Orioles’ horrible record fool you. Five hitters in the projected lineup have an xISO above .200 against RHP this season (Rutschman, O’Hearn, Holliday, Laureano and Kjerstad). Two more (Mountcastle and Mullins) are at .180 and .181. That leaves Gunnar Henderson who only has a .152 xISO in 76 plate appearances this season, but has a .226 xISO since last season, and Coby Mayo who has shown no ability to hit Major League pitching so far but has destroyed AAA- which is where Hendricks belongs.
• The Angels only have one available lefty in their bullpen as Brock Burke has pitched two days in a row. Reid Detmers is their long guy and lone lefty- and he actually has allowed more power to lefties than righties historically.

Top Plays: Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Ramon Laureano, Adley Rutschman, Ryan O’Hearn

Secondary Plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad

Los Angeles

• Sugano may not be as bad as Hendricks but he seems poised for some massive regression as the league gets more familiar with him. He has only struck out 11.8% of RHH and 14.4% of LHH this season
  • LHH have a .309 wOBA but .349 xwOBA with a .188 ISO and .199 xISO. RHH have a .314 wOBA and .402 xwOBA with a .143 ISO and .273 xISO.
• Zach Neto, Jorge Soler, Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe, Kyren Paris and Jo Adell all have an xISO of at least .172 against RHP since last season.
  • Sugano’s expected power numbers being higher to righties than lefties make sense because he is reliant on a split-fingered fastball, which is a pitch he throws much more often to opposite-handed hitters.

Top Plays: Zach Neto, Taylor Ward, Jorge Soler, Logan O’Hoppe

Secondary Plays: Jo Adell, Kyren Paris

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (-133) 7

Kevin Gausman at Luis Castillo

Toronto

• Luis Castillo has really fallen off, striking out only 18.2% of hitters this season compared to 24.3 last season. His Stuff+ is down from 103 to 93.7. He has actually done a good job of limiting left-handed power while giving up a .198 xISO to RHH, which is the opposite of what he did last season
  • The problem from a DFS standpoint is that this is the worst park for scoring runs and 8^th worst park for hitting home runs in baseball. So, on a 12 game slate, it’s tough to want much Toronto even if Castillo does look extremely washed.
• Kevin Gausman has a tough matchup as Seattle’s 128 wRC+ against RHP this season is the best in baseball. They also rank 16^th in K% after being a high K team last year. Despite Seattle’s hot start, Gausman looks good for the same reasons that the Jays’ hitters don’t: this park is great for pitching.
  • $9,000 price tag on Gausman on DraftKings with about 21% projected ownership, which seems warranted based on a 19% chance of being optimal.
  • Unlike Castillo, Gausman is trending in the other direction. After seeing his strikeout percentage dip to 21.4% last season, he has struck out 24.3% of hitters this season with a jump in Stuff+ from 95.7 to 101.8

Top Plays: Kevin Gausman

Secondary Plays: Anthony Santander, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

Seattle

• While Gausman’s stuff and strikeout numbers have improved this season, he has allowed a .245 xISO to RHH and a .208 xISO to LHH. He is also, historically, very bad at preventing stolen bases.
  • While the power and stolen base upside, combined with the talent in the Mariners’ lineup, means there is a high ceiling here it is difficult to prioritize anything because of the park and slate size. Julio Rodriguez is my favorite one off because of the combination of power and speed, but opportunity cost in the outfield on a 12 game slate is massive. Cal Raleigh comes with less positional opportunity cost and still offers a little stolen base upside in addition to his power.

Top Plays: none

Secondary Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-116) 10

Roki Sasaki at Eduardo Rodriguez

Los Angeles

• There isn’t a ton to say about the Dodgers that everyone doesn’t already know. They are one of the highest upside offenses whenever they are on a slate.
• Tonight, they face Eduardo Rodriguez who has allowed a .197 xISO to RHH since the start of last season. He isn’t a bad pitcher by any stretch, but the Dodgers are still one of the more appealing stacks on the slate.
  • Will Smith and Mookie Betts stand out as the two best right-handed power bats, but don’t forget that Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman both have an xISO above .200 against LHP since 2023 as well.

Top Plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Will Smith

Secondary Plays: Chris Taylor, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman

Arizona

• Eduardo Rodriguez will be an interesting GPP play if for some reason we get a lefty-heavy lineup from the Dodgers but, assuming they use their usual lineup against left-handed pitching, the strikeout percentage lowers substantially.
• Roki Sasaki has struggled to limit quality contact to LHH so far with a .407 xwOBA and .296 xISO allowed. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith and Josh Naylor all have above average power from the left side.

Top Plays: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte

Secondary Plays: Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor

New York Yankees at Unhoused Athletics (+128) 10.5

Will Warren at Osvaldo Bido

New York

• Will Warren is only $6,300. He has struck out 26% of hitters this season. From those two sentences alone, there is potential value. That said, the A’s currently rank 27^th in K% and 12^th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. This park also is likely to play much more hitter-friendly during night games than day games because of wind direction. While the overall strikeout number is a little misleading because Jacob Wilson and Miguel Andujar have each struck out less than 10% of the time, Brent Rooker is the only hitter with above a 24% K% and at least 50 PAs against RHP this season.
• Osvaldo Bido did a very good job of limiting expected power last season but that hasn’t been the case so far this season. RHH have a .171 xISO with just a 7.5% K% while lefties have struck out 20.9% of the time but have a .282 xISO. As mentioned above, this park should be more homer friendly at night.
• Aaron Judge has the highest home run projection on the slate (obviously) and is off to an incredible start this season with a .466 xwOBA and .358 xISO against RHP.
• Trent Grisham has gotten more expensive but he is still a strong play assuming he sits atop the Yankees’ lineup.

Top Plays: Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham

Secondary Plays: Will Warren, Austin Wells, Ben Rice

Athletics

• It would be disingenuous to call the A’s a priority over teams like the Yankees or Padres, but it is a little surprising that they’re projected for no ownership in this spot. Again, this park is likely to be very hitter friendly at night and Warren has allowed a .175 xISO to LHH and a .163 xISO to RHH this season. While his strikeout numbers are very good, the A’s have been good at putting the ball in play and they have plenty of power and speed in their lineup.
  • Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers and Lawrence Butler all have an xISO above .200 against RHP since last season.

Top Plays: Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers

Secondary Plays: Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker