We have an 8 game MLB slate tonight with a couple of clear top end pitching options and an interesting, but flawed, mid-range. There are several high-upside offenses in good matchups but less than ideal hitting environments. It should be a fun slate and this article will analyze every team in a game by game format. There is also a cheat sheet with the top plays from each position at the end of the article.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (-161) 7.5
Paul Skenes at David Peterson
Pittsburgh
- Paul Skenes should be one of the most popular pitchers on the slate at $9,700 despite some red flags and a tough matchup
- Strong season overall for Skenes with a 24.7% K%, 18.4 K-BB% and 2.51 xERA
- Strikeout percentage is down from 33.1% last season to 24.7% this season. FB velo has dropped slightly from 98.8 mph to 98 mph.
- Mets’ active roster ranks 22nd in K% and 7th in wRC+ against RHP this season.
- Citi Field ranks 23rd in park factor over the last three seasons.
- Skenes is probably a little overpriced for the matchup based more on his name value than his production this season, but we also should expect to see an uptick in strikeouts going forward even if he doesn’t get back to his elite K% from last season. Stuff+ grade so far this season is actually a point higher than last season at 109.5 compared to 108.5
- Tough matchup for power against David Peterson
- .144 xISO to RHH and .108 xISO to LHH since last season
- Citi Field actually has a top 10 HR park factor for RHH over the last 3 seasons so that is a positive for Pirates righties despite the tough matchup
- Joey Bart has a .183 xISO in 155 PAs against LHP since 2023 and projects as a decent option at catcher.
- While the Pirates don’t have any true power hitters, Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Tommy Pham all have an xISO between .155 and .200 against LHP over the last 3 seasons and they are all cheap.
Top Plays: Paul Skenes
Secondary Plays: Joey Bart, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds
New York
- Quality matchup for David Peterson
- Pirates have one of the lowest run totals on the slate
- Pirates’ active roster ranks 9th in K% and 26th in wRC+ against LHP since last season.
- Peterson has the platoon advantage against Pittsburgh’s best player (Oneil Cruz). Cruz is also dealing with back tightness so may not even be in the lineup.
- Only a 20.2% K% since last season for Peterson but a respectable 3.90 xFIP and relatively inexpensive $8,200 salary. K% is up slightly this season from 19.8% last year to 21.6% this season.
- Tough matchup for the Mets offensively against one of the best pitchers in baseball.
- Juan Soto is playable against anyone and he is still only $5,100 despite the 4th best xwOBA of all qualified hitters this season
- Mets’ lineup is talented enough that they are a viable stack in large field GPPs against anyone, but this is obviously a low probability spot against Skenes.
Top Plays: David Peterson
Secondary Plays: Juan Soto
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-188) 8.5
Jake Irvin at Grant Holmes
Washington
- Plenty of red flags for Jake Irvin
- Stuff+ has dropped from 98.6 last season to 94 this season. K% is down from 20.3% to 16.8%. Fastball velo is down from 93.9 to 92.0 mph.
- Atlanta has been a middle of the road offense so far, ranking 14th in wRC+ and 15th in K% against RHP this season but they are more talented than that on paper.
- Reverse power splits so far in Grant Holmes’ career with a .188 xISO allowed to RHHs and a .129 xISO allowed to LHHs since last season
- Not ideal for the Nats since most of their best hitters are left-handed. Doesn’t mean that we can’t look to them, but Dylan Crews is really the only right-handed bat that we could use to take advantage of those splits.
- Holmes was below average at preventing stolen bases last season but has yet to allow one in 39.1 innings pitched this season. Remains to be seen what his true ability is.
- While the power splits aren’t ideal, we shouldn’t just ignore the upside in the Nationals’ lineup
- J. Abrams has a .416 xwOBA and .282 xISO in 80 PAs against RHP this season
- James Wood has a .410 xwOBA and .293 xISO in 121 PAs
- Nathaniel Lowe has a .385 xwOBA and .211 xISO in 116 PAs
- Dylan Crews (only power-hitting RHH) has a .355 xwOBA and .235 xISO in110 PAs
- Luis Garcia Jr. has a .345 xwOBA and .172 xISO. Only a .288 xwOBA and .128 ISO so we should see some regression to the mean from him sooner than later and he is just $3,500.
Top Plays: C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Luis Garcia Jr.
Secondary Plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Dylan Crews, Keibert Ruiz
Atlanta
- Grant Holmes is projected for about 16% ownership with a 13% chance of being optimal at $7,400 so he looks like a viable SP2 if we need to save money.
- 8% K% so far this season. Subpar 90.6 Stuff+ grade, but it is up slightly from last season
- Nationals only rank 20th in K% against RHP but they are 23rd in wRC+
- Matt Olson has an elite matchup against Irvin
- Irvin has allowed a .229 xISO to LHHs since last season compared to a .148 xISO to RHHs. So far this season, he has been even worse with a .308 xISO allowed to LHHs compared to a .159 xISO to RHHs.
- Olson has a .391 xwOBA and .277 xISO in 136 PAs against RHP so far this season
- Truist Park ranks 9th in HR park factor over the last three seasons, though it is only 20th since last season.
- Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris have the platoon advantage as well, but don’t offer as much power as Olson. Irvin also only allowed 5 stolen bases in 187.2 innings pitched last season, though he has allowed 4 in 48 innings already this season.
Top Plays: Grant Holmes, Matt Olson
Secondary Plays: Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris, Alex Verdugo, Sean Murphy
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-243) 8.5
Cal Quantrill at Colin Rea
Weather Note: Wind blowing in and chilly
Miami
- Ideally, we get LH power bats against Colin Rea
- .254 xISO to LHH and .092 xISO to RHH this season. .199 xISO to LHH and .159 xISO to RHH since last season
- Jesus Sanchez has a .361 xwOBA and .223 xISO in 489 PAs against RHP since last season. Kyle Stowers has a .340 xwOBA and .204 xISO in 277 PAs.
- Rea has only allowed one stolen base so far this season, but he was below average at preventing stolen bases each of the last two seasons
- Xavier Edwards currently has the 5th highest stolen base projection in the Run The Sims projections.
- Agustin Ramirez is not a lefty, but he is a catcher with power upside which is relatively difficult to find
- The weather here lowers home run projections across the board.
Top Plays: Jesus Sanchez
Secondary Plays: Kyle Stowers, Agustin Ramirez, Xavier Edwards, Connor Norby
Chicago
- Cubs are likely to be one of the highest owned stacks and for good reason. The only negative here is the weather, but there is still plenty of power upside in the Cubs lineup along with significant stolen base upside.
- Cal Quantrill has allowed 7 stolen bases in 31.2 innings pitched this season. He graded as above average at preventing stolen bases last season, but he has been below average overall for his career.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has the highest stolen base projection on the slate and Kyle Tucker is second. Jon Berti and Nico Hoerner are in the top 10 as well.
- In addition to not being good at preventing stolen bases, Quantrill is also not good at pitching.
- .356 xwOBA to RHHs and .358 xwOBA to LHH since last season. Decent at limiting power numbers over that time with a .177 xISO to RHHs and a .162 xISO to LHHs
- The power numbers have been worse so far this season with a .239 xISO to RHHs and a .187 xISO to LHHs.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch and Carson Kelly all have an xISO above .200 against RHP this season. Dansby Swanson isn’t too far behind at .188.
- .356 xwOBA to RHHs and .358 xwOBA to LHH since last season. Decent at limiting power numbers over that time with a .177 xISO to RHHs and a .162 xISO to LHHs
- Colin Rea isn’t a great pitcher either, but he does have some value at only $6,800 in a favorable matchup in favorable pitching weather.
- 3% K% is up from 19.1% last season. Fastball velo is up from 92.9 to 93.9 MPH. Stuff+ is down slightly from 96 to 94.8.
- Marlins’ active roster ranks 24th in wRC+ and 9th in K% this season.
Top Plays: Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki
Secondary Plays: Nico Hoerner, Jon Berti, Dansby Swanson, Carson Kelly, Michael Busch, Colin Rea
Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers (-250) 9
Chase Dollander at Tyler Mahle
Colorado
- This might be the worst team in the history of baseball. The matchup against Tyler Mahle isn’t particularly favorable either. And they are playing outside of Coors Field.
- Ryan McMahon should be more than $3,300. He has a .347 xwOBA and .202 xISO against RHP since last season and a .393 xwOBA and .285 xISO so far this season.
- Hunter Goodman has a 119 wRC+ and .201 ISO so far this season. He projects to be about a league average hitter in terms of overall production but an above average power hitter. That is valuable at catcher so he warrants secondary consideration. He only has a .275 xwOBA and .129 xISO in 106 PAs against RHP this season, however.
Top Plays: Ryan McMahon
Secondary Plays: Hunter Goodman
Texas
- Tyler Mahle gets the matchup that every pitcher dreams about as he gets to face the Rockies outside of Coors Field. He is currently projected for 20-25% ownership with about a 15% chance of being optimal. While he may be somewhat overowned at a $9,200 price tag, there are plenty of ways to be contrarian elsewhere in your lineup if you decide to roster him.
- Colorado has the 2nd highest K% against RHP this season (and keep in mind that is not a park-adjusted stat and they play their home games in the park where it is the hardest to strike out). They rank 29th in wRC+ against RHP as well.
- Mahle’s strikeout percentage is up to 19.3% this season from 17.9 percent last season. While that is still below average, his Stuff+ has also increased from 83.7 to 91.8 and his fastball velo is up from 91.4 to 92.0. He is certainly not a $9,200 pitcher from a talent standpoint but the matchup justifies it.
- Chase Dollander is a talented pitching prospect, although he will undoubtedly be ruined by the Rockies. He has struggled in his first taste of the Major Leagues, allowing a .268 xISO and .373 xwOBA to RHHs and a .416 xwOBA and .319 xISO to LHHs. He does have a respectable 23.1% K% against RHHs so far, but LHHs have only struck out 15.4% of the time in addition to making a ton of quality contact.
- Corey Seager stands out as the top bat from the Rangers as he has the platoon advantage and has produced a .421 xwOBA and .267 xISO in 73 PAs against RHP this season. Since last season, he has a .415 xwOBA and .286 xISO in this split.
- Joc Pederson is down to $2,600 on DraftKings which offers some value for a hitter that is likely to bat in the middle of the order for the team with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate. The problem is that Pederson has fully earned this new salary, posting just a .279 xwOBA and .145 xISO in 108 PAs against RHP this season.
- Keep in mind, Pederson historically offers plenty of power upside and still has a .364 xwOBA and .212 xISO in 513 total PAs against RHP since last season. It will be interesting to see what wins out between Pederson’s current inability to hit and Dollander’s inability to get left-handed hitters out.
- Evan Carter is back with the MLB team after starting the year in the minors. I have no idea if he is any good or not- he looked like the next young superstar when he first came up a couple of years ago before dealing with injuries and poor performance since. He is only $3,500, however, and at the very least has a high ceiling.
- Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung are all $4,000 or less on DraftKings (with Semien at just $2,900).
- Semien has struggled this season with a .232 wOBA and .082 ISO against RHP. His expected numbers aren’t great at .313 and .154, respectively, but they are certainly better than his actual numbers.
- Similarly, Garcia has just a .312 wOBA with a .204 ISO against RHP this season. He has a .380 xwOBA and .280 xISO, however.
- Jung missed time with injury but has a .335 xwOBA and .201 xISO in 86 PAs so far.
- Wyatt Langford is one of the only expensive Rangers at $5,200 but he has earned it with plenty of power and stolen base upside.
- Langford has a .329 xwOBA and .189 xISO in 92 PAs against RHP this season and leads the Rangers with 7 stolen bases. He currently has the 9th highest stolen base projection on the slate in our projections.
- Overall, the Rangers offer a ton of upside at relatively low cost. This is an offense that has underperformed to start the season relative to their historical production, which means that we can pretty comfortably buy into them at a discount and expect them to do better from this point forward than they have year to date.
Top Plays: Tyler Mahle, Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford
Secondary Plays: Marcus Semien, Joc Pederson, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Evan Carter, Josh Smith
Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-117) 8
Michael Wacha at Ryan Gusto
Kansas City
- Nice park upgrade for KC bats here. Houston ranks 12th in HR park factor over the last 3 seasons compared to 25th for Kansas City. Since last season, Houston is 6th and KC is 2nd to last.
- Ryan Gusto projects to be Just A Guy as most public models have him projected for around a 4.5 FIP with a 19-20% K%. He also only had a 38.9% groundball percentage at AAA last season.
- Bobby Witt Jr. will be one of the highest owned shortstops tonight, as he should be. He currently has the highest HR projection and third highest SB projection in our model.
- Stolen bases typically come off the pitcher and we don’t have much data on Gusto, but it is worth noting that Yainer Diaz has struggled to throw out runners so far this season after being above average each of the last two. Attempted base stealers have been successful 27 out of 31 times against Diaz so far this season.
- Witt “only” has a .185 xISO against RHP this season but he has a .253 xISO since last season.
- Jonathan India remains inexpensive with multi-position eligibility on DraftKings. He offers stolen base upside as well. Maikel Garcia is more expensive at $4,500 but also has multi-position eligibility and SB upside.
- One of the most absurd stats that I have found through the first month-plus of the season is that Salvador Perez ranks 131st out of 165 qualified hitters with a .286 wOBA. His .392 xwOBA, however, ranks 19th out of those same 165 hitters. For context, the players closest to Perez in xwOBA are Cal Raleigh, Matt Olson, George Springer and Spencer Torkelson. His xwOBA is higher than all three of James Wood, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bobby Witt Jr.
- In his limited time with the Astros, Gusto has struggled to limit LH power as he has allowed a .263 xISO. Vinnie Pasquantino is off to a slow start this season, but he still has a respectable .184 xISO against RHP at just $3,200.
- Michael Wacha is a secondary SP2 option at $7,900 in a middle of the road matchup
- Houston ranks 13th in K% and 15th in wRC+ against RHP so far this season.
- Wacha’s strikeout percentage and Stuff+ grade are both down from last season. K% has dropped from 21.2 to 18.4% and Stuff+ has dropped from 100.4 to 98.1.
Top Plays: Bobby Witt, Jr., Jonathan India
Secondary Plays: Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Michael Wacha
Houston
- While Wacha’s K% and Stuff+ are down somewhat this season, his results so far are very similar to last season. He has allowed a .319 xwOBA and .162 xISO to RHHs over that time and a .305 xwOBA and .145 xwOBA to LHHs
- Wacha’s reliance on his change-up typically leads to a bit more power upside for RHHs, though he still isn’t bad against them.
- There is some cheap upside in the Astros’ lineup as every hitter in the projected lineup tonight is $4,000 or less on DraftKings
- Yainer Diaz has the best expected power numbers so far this season with a .193 xISO against RHHs. Since last season, it is Christian Walker at .219.
Top Plays: Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz
Secondary Plays: Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes
New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners (+130) 8
Clarke Schmidt at Emerson Hancock
New York
- Tough matchup for Schmidt but also a massive park upgrade
- Seattle’s active roster is 2nd in wRC+ (to the Yankees) and 19th in K% against RHP this season
- T-Mobile Park is 21st in HR park factor and last in overall park factor over the last three seasons. It is also first in K park factor.
- Schmidt’s 21.6% strikeout percentage so far this season is down from 26.3% last season. His Stuff+ grade has dropped from 106.8 to 100.1.
- Emerson Hancock has displayed reverse splits so far in his career, which is not a good thing when you have to face Aaron Judge. Judge is having one of the best seasons in MLB history and, while this is a big park downgrade, he clearly has the ability to hit the ball out of any stadium.
- RHHs have a .227 xISO and .368 xwOBA with a 15.5% K% against Hancock since last season. So far this season, they have a .178 xISO and .351 xwOBA
- Judge has a .474 xwOBA and .367 xISO against RHP this season. Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe have an xISO between .180 and .200 against RHP from the right side this season as well.
- Hancock has been better against LHHs, holding them to a .104 xISO this season and .127 xISO since last season.
- Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, Austin Wells and Ben Rice still offer plenty of upside, but they have the more difficult matchup split in addition to losing the short porch in right field that they have in New York.
Top Plays: Aaron Judge
Secondary Plays: Clarke Schmidt, Trent Grisham, Austin Wells, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Volpe
Seattle
- Schmidt has held RHHs to a .120 xISO since last season and LHH to a .140 xISO. LHHs have a .169 xISO so far this season while RHHs have a .111 xISO.
- While there is talent on the Mariners, it is tough to single out any individual hitters as being in an advantageous matchup- especially in this ballpark.
- Jorge Polanco has a .301 xISO through his first 98 PAs against RHP this season while Cal Raleigh has a .339 xISO in 117 PAs. Julio Rodriguez has a .179 xISO and offers stolen base upside as well.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, Cal Raleigh
Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres (-198) 7.5
Yusei Kikuchi at Michael King
Los Angeles
- Very difficult strikeout matchup for Yusei Kikuchi as the Padres’ active roster ranks 26th in K% against LHP since 2023.
- Can’t look to Kikuchi with any confidence. Matchup is difficult. K% this season is down from 28% last season to 21.1%. Stuff+ is down from 103.9 to 94.2. Fastball velo is down from 95.5 to 94.4.
- Only argument for Kikuchi is that his salary is down to $7,100 as a result of his terrible start and he isn’t going to get much ownership
- Angels’ offense is arguably in the worst spot on the slate. The only reason it is even in question is that at least they are in a good park for offense.
- Michael King has struck out 27.5% of hitters with a 3.54 xFIP since last season. So far this season he has struck out 27.0% of hitters and his Stuff+ has increased from 95.9 to 100.3.
- King doesn’t allow much power to either side of the plate and he is above average at preventing stolen bases
- The only case to be made for looking to Angels’ bats is that King is most likely going to be the most popular pitcher on the slate by a wide margin.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Yusei Kikuchi (I guess)
San Diego
- Michael King is currently projected for 50+% ownership which is too high relative to optimal percentage (31%) but warranted in that he is the clear top pitching play on the slate and we have 9 other spots to differentiate our lineups. Of every single player on tonight’s slate, King’s 31% optimal percentage is the highest.
- As mentioned above, King’s Stuff+ is up this season and he has maintained a 27% strikeout percentage so far. The Angels’ active roster ranks 1st in K% and 27th in wRC+ this season.
- After a career of being a good strikeout pitcher who also allowed a lot of power, Kikuchi increased the strikeout numbers while lowering the power numbers last season. The Angels fell for it and gave him a nice contract in free agency. And now he is worse than he has ever been.
- RHHs have only struck out 18.8% of the time this season compared to 28% of the time last season. They have a .227 xISO this season compared to .154 last season.
- Since the start of the 2023 season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .374 xwOBA and .204 xISO in 313 PAs against LHP. Manny Machado has a .369 xwOBA and .227 xISO in 340 PAs.
Top Plays: Michael King, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr.
Secondary Plays: Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (+104) 8
Merrill Kelly at Justin Verlander
Arizona
- Justin Verlander’s Stuff+ has been well above average each of the last two seasons but it hasn’t translated to a lot of strikeouts or success. Overall, he has a 19.0% strikeout percentage, 4.92 xFIP and 4.68 FIP since last season.
- Worst park for home runs over the last three seasons and since last season. 26/28 in overall park factor over the last three seasons.
- RHHs have done a lot of damage against Verlander so far this season with a .262 xISO and 18.9% K%.
- Eugenio Suarez currently has the 5th highest HR projection in our projections. He has a .387 xwOBA and .355 xISO through his first 129 PAs against RHP this season.
- LHHs only have a .119 xISO against Verlander so far this season, but that doesn’t mean we should just ignore all of the talent in this lineup
- Corbin Carroll has a .419 xwOBA and .367 xISO in 129 PAs against RHP this season
- Ketel Marte has a .442 xwOBA and .253 xISO in his first 38 PAs. Since last season, he has a .372 xwOBA and .204 xISO in 408 PAs.
- Pavin Smith has a .363 xwOBA and .217 xISO in 112 PAs this season.
- Josh Naylor has a .396 xwOBA and .193 xISO.
- Arizona would like great if this game were almost anywhere else but, as is, they look like a high upside contrarian stack.
- Merrill Kelly is only projected for about 5 percent ownership with an optimal percentage around 10%. He is a relatively low probability play, but the current ownership gap between him and some of the more popular mid-range SP2s is probably a bit too wide.
- Strikeout percentage is down from 21.0% last season to 18.4% this season.
- Stuff+ up slightly from 90.9 to 91.8
- Has allowed power to both sides of the plate since last season but this park helps to mitigate that.
- Giants’ active roster ranks 22nd in wRC+ and 11th in K%
Top Plays: Eugenio Suarez, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte
Secondary Plays: Merrill Kelly, Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel, Josh Naylor
San Francisco
- Justin Verlander is a similar GPP play to Kelly
- About 5% projected ownership with a 10% chance of being optimal at a cheap $7,000 price tag.
- Brutal matchup as the D-Backs rank 18th in K% and 3rd in wRC+ against RHP.
- Kelly has allowed a .202 xISO to RHH and a .221 xISO to LHH since last season. So far this season, RHH have a .253 xISO and LHH have a .198 xISO.
- Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos are all RHHs that have an xISO above .200 against RHP this season. Mike Yastrzemski has a .186 xISO from the left side.
Top Plays: Matt Chapman, Willy Adames
Secondary Plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, Patrick Bailey
CHEAT SHEET: TOP OVERALL PLAYS
P: Michael King, Paul Skenes, Tyler Mahle, David Peterson
C: Agustin Ramirez, Gabriel Moreno, Carson Kelly
1B: Salvador Perez, Matt Olson, Joc Pederson
2B: Nico Hoerner, Ketel Marte, Luis Garcia Jr.
3B: Eugenio Suarez, Matt Chapman, Jonathan India
SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Corey Seager, CJ Abrams
OF: Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Corbin Carroll, Seiya Suzuki, Jesus Sanchez, Aaron Judge, James Wood