We have a 9 game MLB slate tonight that could end up only being 8, or even 7, games. It should be an interesting GPP slate as there is one clear top offensive spot and then a bunch of other good, but not great, spot. There are also good pitchers on the slate but not many “can’t miss” spots. This article will analyze every team in a game by game format. There is also a cheat sheet with the top plays from each position at the end of the article.
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Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-133) 9
Colton Gordon at Ryan Pepiot
Houston
- Colton Gordon is cheap at $6,000 and has a favorable K matchup as the Rays’ active roster ranks 7th in K% against LHP since 2023. Gordon himself doesn’t project as anything special, however, with a K% around 20% and mid-4s ERA metrics
- Can be used as a punt SP2 if needed, but only about a 5% chance of being optimal suggests it won’t be necessary very often on this slate
- There is some home run upside here as Ryan Pepiot has allowed a .200 xISO to RHHs and a .193 xISO to LHHs this season. RHHs have also only struck out 18.9% of the time. Since last season, he has allowed a .183 xISO to RHHs and .154 to LHHs with a 23.2% K% against righties and a 26.3% K% against lefties
- Houston is very righty-heavy, especially with Yordan Alvarez sidelined.
- The best power hitters in the lineup are Christian Walker (.177 xISO in 162 PAs against RHP this season) and Yainer Diaz (.222 xISO in 134 PAs)
Top Plays: Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz
Secondary Plays: Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes
Tampa Bay
- I mentioned Ryan Pepiot’s reverse splits in the Houston section and it is a concern against this lineup. That said, it is a relatively weak lineup overall.
- Walker and Diaz are the only hitters with above average power over the last couple of seasons
- 19th in K% and 21st in wRC+ against RHP this season
- Reasonable $7,800 price tag on Pepiot.
- While Pepiot’s K% is down from 26.3% last season to 21.2% this season, his underlying metrics are still strong.
- Stuff+ is 10804, which is down a little over a point from last season but still well above average
- Velo is the same as last season
- Pitching+ is 111.2, which is up 3 points from last season
- Plenty of right-handed bats that will have the platoon advantage against Gordon. Most notably:
- Yandy Diaz has a .236 xISO in 334 PAs against LHP since last season
- Christopher Morel has a .221 xISO in 276 PAs
- Danny Jansen has a .178 xISO in 227 PAs
- Junior Caminero hasn’t had much success against LHP in a limited sample so far but he is a highly regarded hitting prospect
- Brandon Lowe has a .197 xISO in 175 PAs against LHP since last season so don’t sleep on him if he is in the lineup
- Pay close attention to Tampa Bay’s lineup because there is pinch hit risk here. The biggest thing to look for is how many typical left-handed starters are not starting:
- Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Jose Lowe and Chandler Simpson are all lefties that typically start. The more of them that begin the game on the bench, the more pinch hit opportunities Tampa Bay has once Gordon leaves the game.
- Curtis Mead, Christopher Morel and Jose Caballero are the right-handed hitters that are most likely to start but not finish the game.
- Our projections at Run The Sims quantify pinch hit chances for you. Mead currently leads the way with a 34% chance of being pinch hit for.
Top Plays: Ryan Pepiot, Yandy Diaz, Danny Jansen, Junior Caminero
Secondary Plays: Christopher Morel, Brandon Lowe
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox (+168) 8.5
Luis Castillo at Davis Martin
Seattle
- Luis Castillo is projected to be one of the most popular pitchers on the slate at $9,500 in a great matchup against the White Sox.
- Pros: The White Sox have the lowest implied run total on the slate. They rank 8th in K% and 28th in wRC+ against RHP this season. Castillo is coming off arguably his best start of the season. Highest FB velo and best Stuff+. Increased 4-seam and slider usage. Decreased 2-seam usage.
- Cons: Strikeout percentage this season is down from 24.3% to 18.2%. Stuff+ is down from 103 to 95.3 (108 in his most recent start though). Pitching+ is down from 105.1 to 99.4. FB velo is down from 95.6 to 94.7 mph (95.4 in his last start though). Park downgrade pitching outside of T-Mobile Park.
- Park upgrade for SEA bats
- 21st overall park factor, 17th HR park factor over last 3 seasons compared to 28th and 21st in Seattle
- Davis Martin has allowed a .211 xISO to LHHs and a .202 xISO to RHHs. Righties have struck out 17.1% of the time and lefties have struck out 13.6%
- Jorge Polanco (.297), Julio Rodriguez (.189), Cal Raleigh (.319) and Rowdy Tellez (.309) all have an xISO above .180 against RHP this season.
- Two LH relievers (not including the LH closer) in Chicago bullpen leads to very high PH percentage for Tellez
Top Plays: Luis Castillo, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez
Secondary Plays: Jorge Polanco, Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, Rowdy Tellez
Chicago
- Davis Martin’s strikeout percentage is down from last season but his Stuff+ and Pitching+ are both up. Probably not the spot that I want to take a chance on him, however, against a Seattle offense that has been one of the best in baseball- especially because he isn’t particularly cheap at $7,200.
- Despite his struggles this season, Castillo hasn’t allowed a ton of power. RHHs have done more expected damage with a .182 xISO than LHHs with a .154 xISO
- There isn’t much power to target on Chicago. Andrew Vaughn (.225), Luis Robert (.171) and Miguel Vargas (.185) have the highest xISOs against RHP this season
- Cal Raleigh has surprisingly struggled to throw out base stealers so far this season but historically he has been very good. Luis Robert currently has the third highest stolen base projection on tonight’s slate but it still isn’t enough to make him a priority.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: None
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins (-131) 7.5
Logan Allen at Bailey Ober
Weather Note: This game looks very unlikely to play. I’m going to save time and not write about it. If it does end up playing, feel free to jump into the Run The Sims discord and ask any questions you may have
Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers (-101 (but should be -1001)) 9
Dean Kremer at Quinn Priester
Baltimore
- Decent spot for Kremer. Milwaukee ranks 16th in K% and 26th in wRC+ against RHP this season. Kremer’s K% this season is only 15.7%, down from 22.2% last season. His Stuff+ (98.3) and Pitching+ (97.9) are average-ish and similar to last season. No real confidence here, but he probably pitches better from this point forward than he has to this point and he has very little ownership at $7,000 if you need a contrarian SP2.
- Quinn Priester has traditional splits, allowing a .385 xwOBA and .176 xISO to LHHs compared to a .278 xwOBA and .105 xISO to RHHs since last season. He has struck out 19.5% of RHHs compared to just 10.6% of lefties
- These splits are favorable for the Orioles as most of their best hitters are left-handed
- Jackson Holliday (.233), Gunnar Henderson (.205), Adley Rutschman (.246), Ryan O’Hearn (.204), Cedric Mullins (.190) and Heston Kjerstad (.245) all have above average power from the left side. American Family Field is a top 10 park in home run park factor as well.
- Brewers’ bullpen has three left-handed relievers, which isn’t ideal for Baltimore’s matchups later in the game. It also means there could be pinch hit risk depending on the starting lineup. If Kjerstad starts and Laureano doesn’t, assume Kjerstad is coming out if they put in a LH reliever to face him. O’Hearn carries some pinch hit risk as well and it would increase significantly if Mountcastle were to not start the game.
Top Plays: Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman
Secondary Plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, Ramon Laureano
Milwaukee
- Lefties have done the bulk of the damage against Kremer so far this season with a .375 xwOBA and .252 xISO compared to a .309 xwOBA and .164 xISO for RHHs
- Brice Turang (.173 xISO) and Christian Yelich (.193) are the two best LH power bats in Milwaukee’s lineup.
Top Plays: Brice Turang, Christian Yelich
Secondary Plays: Jackson Chourio, William Contreras
Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals (-149) 8
Keider Montero at Sonny Gray
Weather note: Looks like game-ending rain will be arriving in this one. The question mark is timing.
Detroit
- Sonny Gray has actually allowed power to both sides of the plate this season, which is unusual for him. RHHs have a .192 xISO and LHHs have a .212 xISO
- The best power hitters on Detroit are Kerry Carpenter (.299 xISO), Riley Greene (.313) and Spencer Torkelson (.255).
- Combination of Gray being good at limiting power historically and risk of the game ending early would keep me away from Detroit bats unless the forecast improves.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson
St. Louis
- More favorable matchup for the Cardinals than the Tigers, but same issues with weather. Really don’t want too much exposure to hitters that seem likely to not get a full game’s worth of at-bats.
- Keider Montero has been much worse against LHHs than RHHs in a small sample this season, but neutral splits going back to last season
- Lars Nootbar (.225 xISO), Brendan Donovan (.200) and Willson Contreras (.212) have done the most damage against RHP this season
- Sonny Gray has a tough matchup as the Tigers rank 11th in K% but 5th in wRC+ against RHP this season. Gray is a very good pitcher, however, and this park ranks 16th in overall park factor and 23rd in HR park factor over the last three seasons.
- In addition to giving up more power than usual this season, Gray’s strikeout percentage has fallen from 30.3% to 24.8%. Stuff+ has dropped slightly from 97.3 to 96.2 and Pitching+ has dropped from 107.1 to 96.2.
- Weather is probably less of a concern for Gray than for bats. As long as the rain is expected to move in during the later innings, Gray is likely to be out of the game by then (and maybe ends up with a complete game bonus if the timing is perfect)
Top Plays: Sonny Gray (but keep in mind he does have red flags this season)
Secondary Plays: Lars Nootbar, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (+204) 10
Cristopher Sanchez at Kyle Freeland
Philadelphia
- Coors Field is not preventing Cristopher Sanchez from looking like the best pitching option on the slate at just $8,000.
- Sanchez’s strikeout percentage has increased from 20.3 to 28.4%. Stuff+ is up from 106.6 to 114. Pitching + is about the same as last season at 110.9 compared to 110.7. Fastball velo is up 1.1 mph to 95.6.
- Three different pitches (of three) that grade out as well above average in Stuff+
- Changeup ranks 4th among all SPs with at least 20 innings pitched this season. Sinker ranks 7th. Slider ranks 39th (out of 142).
- Colorado is arguably the worst team in the history of the sport.
- Active roster has a 27.9% K% against LHP since 2023. A’s are 2nd at 24.7%. 79 wRC+ is 2nd
- Colorado’s active roster ranks 3rd in K% and 24th in wRC+ in home games. They play their home games in the 4th most difficult park to strike out in across all of baseball.
- Right-handed heavy lineup should not be an issue for Sanchez
- 4% K% against RHHs compared to 21.9% against LHHs this season
- .299 xwOBA and .129 xISO allowed to RHHs (.260 xwOBA and .074 xISO to LHHs)
- 41% change-up usage with a 26% swinging strike percentage against RHHs.
- The only issue with Phillies’ bats tonight is gonna be figuring out how to differentiate the rest of your lineup. They are clearly the best spot on the slate against Kyle Freeland in Coors Field.
- Freeland is probably a better pitcher than you think he is, but he still isn’t good- especially against this lineup in Coors Field.
- .352 xwOBA and .175 xISO with a 15.8% K% against RHH this season. .324 xwOBA and .162 xISO with a 21.4% K% against LHH this season.
- Bryce Harper (.230), Nick Castellanos (.207), Kyle Schwarber (.251) and T. Realmuto (.201) all have an xISO above .200 against LHP since last season. Alec Bohm (.177) and Trea Turner (.163) have power upside as well (not to mention stolen base upside for Turner).
- Turner currently has the 8th highest stolen base projection in Run The Sims projections.
- The Rockies’ bullpen ranks 26th in xFIP, 19th in ERA, 30th in K% and 26th in WHIP this season.
Top Plays: Cristopher Sanchez, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper
Secondary Plays: Alec Bohm, Whoever else is starting
Colorado
- The Rockies are low owned in Coors Field against the most popular pitcher on the slate. That is your argument if you want to stack them. There is nothing beyond that.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Ezequiel Tovar, Hunter Goodman
Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (-129) 7.5
Kris Bubic at Robbie Ray
Kansas City
- Not a good spot overall for Kansas City offense, but there are still a few things to like.
- Robbie Ray has already allowed 10 stolen bases this season after allowing 9 all of last season.
- Bobby Witt, Jr. and Maikel Garcia currently have the two highest stolen base projections on the slate. If, for some reason, Patrick Bailey isn’t in the starting lineup they will look even better.
- Salvador Perez is only $3,300 and he regained catcher eligibility which makes him much more valuable than when he is first base only.
- Perez has a .362 xwOBA this season compared to the .261 wOBA that has driven his salary all the way down to $3,300.
- Kris Bubic is expensive at $9,700 but pitching on this slate isn’t great- especially assuming we lose the Minnesota game and possibly the STL game.
- 6% K% is third highest on the slate behind Sanchez and Ray.
- Park upgrade going from 28th ranked K park factor at home to 22nd in SF and 7th overall park factor at home to 27th in SF.
- Likely to be a predominantly RH lineup for SF. 27.5% K% and .269 xwOBA allowed to RHH this season compared to 19.6% K% and .362 xwOBA against LHH.
Top Plays: Kris Bubic, Bobby Witt Jr.
Secondary Plays: Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez
San Francisco
- Tough strikeout matchup for Robbie Ray– especially for an expensive $10,000 salary. He does have the 2nd highest K% on the slate, however, and there aren’t a lot of great pitching options on this slate.
- 3% K% is the 2nd highest on the slate but also down 7 points from last season. Stuff+ is down from 105 to 98.2. Pitching+ is 90.2 (last season was 89.5). FB velo down slightly from 94.1 to 93.6.
- Grades out well in my metric for targeting strikeouts, groundouts and pop-ups despite the drop-off in stuff. About half a standard deviation better than average this season.
- Royals’ active roster is 23rd in wRC+ and 20th in K% against LHP since 2023. Should see a slight increase in K% in SF compared to KC as well.
- Heliot Ramos has a .346 xISO in 174 PAs against LHP since last season. Less than ideal matchup and ballpark but worth noting.
Top Plays: Robbie Ray
Secondary Plays: Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman
Los Angeles Angels at Athletics (-135) 9.5
Jose Soriano at J.T. Ginn
Los Angeles
- Jose Soriano is very good at getting groundballs but isn’t great at getting strikeouts. 19.0% K% this season is down from 21.2% last season. 62.1% groundball percentage ranks 2nd among all qualified pitchers this season.
- Limited sample size for Ginn since last season. Has been very good against RHHs and very bad against LHHs over that time.
- Unfortunately, most of the hitters we typically want to take from the Angels are right-handed.
- Yoan Moncada has hit the ball well so far this season with a .357 xwOBA and .208 xISO through his first 100 PAs against RHP. He is the most dangerous LH bat that the Angels have.
- Zach Neto, Taylor Ward, Jorge Soler and Logan O’Hoppe all have above average power against RHPs but are on the wrong side of the platoon split against Ginn.
- Ginn has only allowed one stolen base during his limited time in the Majors, but Shea Langeliers has been awful at preventing stolen bases this season.
- He was above average in his first two full seasons so this could just be a blip on the radar, but he has thrown out 6 of 44 (13.6%) potential base stealers this season. Last season he threw out 29 or 108 (26.9%) and the season before that he threw out 38 of 122 (31.1%)
- Neto has a top 10 stolen base projection tonight.
Top Plays: Zach Neto, Yoan Moncada, Taylor Ward
Secondary Plays: Luis Rengifo, Jorge Soler, Nolan Schanuel, Logan O’Hoppe
Athletics
- The Athletics have one of the higher team totals on the slate but it is difficult to single out individual hitters against Soriano since he is so good at inducing groundballs and limiting power. Hitters from both sides of the plate this season have about a .130 xISO. That said, the Angels’ bullpen is terrible so there is plenty of upside for add-on runs throughout the game.
- 23rd in xFIP, 30th in ERA, 20th in K%, 22nd in K-BB%, 20th in GB%
- While there isn’t necessarily one hitter that stands out from a matchup standpoint, targeting the best hitters in general is certainly viable given the potentially favorable matchups later on in the game
- Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker are the best overall power hitters on the team.
- T. Ginn is an interesting SP2 option at only $6,700. Angels have a relatively high team total, but they’re a right-handed heavy lineup against a pitcher who has dominated right-handed hitters throughout his limited time in the Majors.
- 3% K%, .298 xwOBA, 20.2 K-BB% and 51.5% GB% against the 99 RHH he has faced in the Majors.
- Definitely risky but at his price on a slate with weak pitching he is intriguing.
Top Plays: Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers
Secondary Plays: J.T. Ginn, Lawrence Butler
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-137) 10
Brandon Pfaadt at Landon Knack
Arizona
- Knack has allowed more power to RHHs than LHHs so far this season with a .247 xISO and 16.7% K% against righties and a .139 xISO and 30.4% K% against lefties. His splits are more neutral since last season, with a .190 xISO and 26% K% to lefties and a .203 xISO and 22.1% K% to righties
- Threw his change-up 22% of the time with a 10% swinging strike percentage to lefties last season. Has thrown it 35% of the time with a 23% swinging strike percentage this season. So it seems likely he has improved the pitch that will play the best against opposite-handed hitters. Stuff+ on his change-up last season was 94 compared to 112 this season.
- While Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Josh Naylor may be somewhat overprojected if Knack’s change-up improvement is real, Eugenio Suarez has a .364 xISO from the right side against RHP this season.
- Even though there looks like a pretty good chance that projection systems are going to overproject the lefties here, that doesn’t mean we can’t play Carroll, Naylor or Marte. They are still good hitters with a ton of power even if the matchup isn’t quite as good as projected.
- Brandon Pfaadt carved up this Dodgers’ team a couple of weeks ago (and won me a GPP in the process), but that doesn’t move the needle as he is still nothing more than a contrarian option at $8,700 in a brutal matchup.
Top Plays: Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, Ketel Marte
Secondary Plays: Josh Naylor, Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel
Los Angeles
- As detailed above, Landon Knack has seemingly made improvements this season. That said, it is still difficult to want to roster him against a D-Backs roster that ranks 30th in K% and 3rd in wRC+ against RHP this season. He is only $7,500 and will probably be facing 6 lefties, though, if you want to roll the dice.
- Shohei Ohtani is Shohei Ohtani.
- LHHs have given Pfaadt trouble so far in his career
- .251 xISO and .398 xwOBA allowed this season. .354 xwOBA and .196 xISO since last season
- In addition to Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Michael Conforto all have an xISO above .200 against RHP since last season. Tommy Edman only has a .125 xISO since last season but has done damage so far this season with a .216 xISO and .395 xwOBA in 85 PAs.
Top Plays: Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy
Secondary Plays: Michael Conforto, Tommy Edman, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman
Cheat Sheet
P: Cristopher Sanchez, Sonny Gray, Kris Bubic, Luis Castillo, Ryan Pepiot
C: J.T. Realmuto, Danny Jansen, Cal Raleigh
1B: Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, Yandy Diaz, Christian Walker
2B: Ketel Marte, Jackson Holliday, Jose Altuve, Jorge Polanco
3B: Eugenio Suarez, Junior Caminero, Yoan Moncada, Alec Bohm, Max Muncy
SS: Trea Turner, Gunnar Henderson, Zach Neto
OF: Corbin Carroll, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Lourdes Gurriel, Taylor Ward, Christopher Morel, Julio Rodriguez