We have a 10 game MLB slate tonight with several games that could be impacted by rain. It should be an interesting GPP slate as there is one clear top offensive spot and then a bunch of other good spots. This article will analyze every team in a game by game format. There is also a cheat sheet with the top plays from each position at the end of the article.
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Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (-159) 9
Jeffrey Springs at Shane Baz
Note: Rain concerns. Keep an eye on weather closer to lock.
Athletics
- Only a 17.7% K% in about 79 IP as a starter this season for Jeffrey Springs. Huge drop off from his last full season in 2022 when he struck out 26.2% of hitters.
- Springs is cheap at $6,800 and only projected for about 5% ownership so he can be used in GPPs, but the Rays’ offense is dangerous.
- RH heavy TB lineup is likely
- In the past, Springs has been a reverse splits pitcher because of a very good change-up. That hasn’t been true so far this season, however, as RHHs have a .182 xISO and .321 xwOBA and LHHs have a .136 xISO and .326 xwOBA
- Major reverse splits so far this season for Shane Baz
- RHHs have only struck out 18.5% of the time with a .209 xISO and .362 xwOBA compared to LHHs who have struck out 28.2% of the time with a .103 xISO and .263 xwOBA
- Combined ~46% change-up and knuckle-curve usage against lefties and a slider that doesn’t generate whiffs against righties makes reverse splits likely to continue
- Best RH power bats on A’s:
- Brent Rooker– .386 xwOBA/.245 xISO
- Shea Langeliers– .332 xwOBA/.196 xISO
- Baz has allowed 8 stolen bases in about 90 IP this season. Graded as above average at preventing steals last year but below average this year.
- Lawrence Butler only played on A’s with more than 5 stolen bases this season (13).
- RHHs have only struck out 18.5% of the time with a .209 xISO and .362 xwOBA compared to LHHs who have struck out 28.2% of the time with a .103 xISO and .263 xwOBA
Top Plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers
Secondary Plays: Jeffrey Springs, Lawrence Butler
Tampa Bay
- Shane Baz is projected for about 26% ownership with a 20% of being optimal at $8,800.
- A’s are likely to have a righty-heavy lineup which isn’t ideal for Baz’s strikeout ability. The more lefties, the higher is K projection should be.
- There are some massive K rates in the A’s projected lineup (Clarke 40%, Kurtz 31.6%, Muncy 30.6%) that help offset Jacob Wilson’s 8.4%
- Springs has been susceptible to RH power this season
- Yandy Diaz: .399 xwOBA/.210 xISO vs LHP since last season
- Beware of pinch hit risk when Tampa Bay faces LHPs.
- Curtis Mead (35%), Christopher Morel (20%) and Danny Jansen (19%) all have elevated pinch hit risk in the Run The Sims projections.
Top Plays: Shane Baz, Yandy Diaz
Secondary Plays: Junior Caminero, Curtis Mead, Danny Jansen
Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox (-113) 10
Brady Singer at Richard Fitts
Note: Rain concerns. Keep an eye on weather closer to lock.
Cincinnati
- Brady Singer has only struck out 20.7% of hitters this season. He has a decent matchup against the Devers-less Red Sox, but pitching in Fenway Park is always dangerous and he isn’t overly cheap at $8,000.
- Dick Fitts hasn’t spent much time in the Majors but he has struggled with RH power so far, allowing a .364 xwOBA and .276 xISO to RHHs compared to a .331 xwOBA and .070 xISO to lefties. The sample size is small, however, so it is probably best to just target the bets Cincy bats against him regardless of handedness. No reason to shy away from RHHs though.
- Elly De La Cruz: .385 xwOBA/.253 xISO vs RHP this season
- Austin Hays: .305 xwOBA/.213 xISO
- Will Benson: .404 xwOBA/.280 xISO
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand: .325 xwOBA/.230 xISO
- De La Cruz is the only real standout bat, but Reds’ hitters are inexpensive across the board and make for a high upside and relatively popular stack tonight.
Top Plays: Elly De La Cruz
Secondary Plays: Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Austin Hays, TJ Friedl, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Gavin Lux, Will Benson
Boston
- Dick Fitts projects as a below average starting pitcher going forward. Public models on FanGraphs have him projected for about a 17-18% strikeout percentage and ~4.50 FIP but they also have most of his innings projected to be as a reliever. So his numbers as a starter are likely to be worse than those projections
- That said, he is $5,500 if you need to punt SP2. He is projected for about 5% ownership.
- Brady Singer has been abused by left-handed hitters so far this season to the tune of a .375 xwOBA and .239 xISO. Fenway Park is better for right-handed home runs than left-handed home runs, but Boston’s best hitters are left-handed so this still sets up nicely.
- Abraham Toro projects to be a popular value play at just $2,900. The combination of injuries to Triston Casas and Alex Bregman and the trade of Rafael Devers lower his pinch hit risk late in games since Boston doesn’t have many options anymore. Toro has been solid so far this season with a .330 xwOBA and .178 xISO in 117 PAs against RHP.
- Jarren Duran has a .344 xwOBA and .156 xISO against RHP this season and also offers plenty of stolen base upside with a team-leading 15 stolen bases this season.
- Wilyer Abreu homered twice last night (one of them inside-the-park) and has a nice matchup tonight as well. He has a .374 xwOBA and .279 xISO in 225 PAs against RHP this season.
Top Plays: Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Abraham Toro
Secondary Plays: Carlos Narvaez, Trevor Story, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-122) 8
Freddy Peralta at Clay Holmes
Note: Rain concerns. Keep an eye on weather closer to lock.
Milwaukee
- Tough matchup for Freddy Peralta as the Mets’ active roster ranks 20th in K% and 4th in wRC+ against RHP this season. Peralta offers upside with a 25.5% strikeout percentage and 3.97 xFIP so far this season. He has seemingly been a bit lucky in terms of run prevention as his ERA sits at just 2.90 which is probably inflating his salary slightly. Projects for about 5% ownership tonight at $9,300.
- Clay Holmes hasn’t been terrible against either side of the plate, but lefties have been a bit more productive with a .341 xwOBA, .183 xISO and 18.1% K% compared to a .316 xwOBA, .162 xISO and 22.6% K% for righties.
- Holmes has only allowed 3 stolen bases in 88 IP so far this season
- Christian Yelich has a .372 xwOBA and .231 xISO against RHP this season
Top Plays: Christian Yelich
Secondary Plays: Freddy Peralta, William Contreras
New York
- Tough strikeout matchup for Clay Holmes as Milwaukee ranks 21st in K% against RHP this season. They do also only rank 21st in wRC+. Holmes is another mid-range arm projected for about 5% ownership tonight.
- Difficult matchups for Mets’ bats against Peralta. They are all projected for less than 5% ownership, however, so there is some merit to looking to them as a high-upside stack despite the tough matchup just based on how much talent is in the lineup. Nothing stands out individually beyond “the Mets have really good hitters”
- RHP this season:
- Francisco Lindor: .366 xwOBA/.220 xISO
- Brandon Nimmo: .348 xwOBA/.211 xISO
- Juan Soto: .480 xwOBA/.387 xISO
- Pete Alonso: .434 xwOBA/.316 xISO
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Clay Holmes, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves (-193) 9.5
Tyler Anderson at Grant Holmes
Note: Rain concerns. Keep an eye on weather closer to lock.
Angels
- Tyler Anderson is $6,300 and projects for less than 5% ownership if you’re desperate, but he has a tough matchup against the Braves and we have plenty of other pitchers on the slate. Anderson has struck out 18.7% of hitters with a 4.92 xFIP this season.
- All of the Angels’ bats are projected for less than 5% ownership, which is interesting given the amount of power in their lineup and the amount of ownership projected for Grant Holmes
- Holmes has above average strikeout ability but has also allowed power this season with a .191 xISO to RHHs and a .185 xISO to LHHs. The Angels strike out a ton, but also have power throughout their lineup
- Zach Neto: .356 xwOBA/.229xISO/25.5% K% against RHP this season
- Mike Trout: .421/.319/25.3
- Taylor Ward: .333/.236/24.5
- Logan O’Hoppe: .299/.211/34.9
- Jo Adell: .396/.296/24.2
- The most likely outcome is that Holmes carves up this lineup but the payoffs when the game goes the other way are certainly worth considering in GPPs
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Mike Trout, Zach Neto (Q)
Atlanta
- Grant Holmes is $9,700 and projects to be one of the highest owned pitchers on the slate. On one hand, that feels absolutely absurd to type. On the other hand, I don’t really have any disagreements. He is projected for about 29% ownership with about a 20% chance of being optimal- and optimal rate tends to undervalue the most expensive players’ worth since we aren’t actually trying to build optimal lineups in MLB.
- The Angels’ active roster has the third highest K% against RHP this season behind only the Rockies and Red Sox. They also are not a team where that stat is particularly misleading, because pretty much their entire lineup has an above average strikeout rate. It isn’t skewed by one or two guys.
- Also working in Holmes’ favor are his splits and the construction of the Angels’ lineup. LAA is a very right-handed heavy team and their projected lineup has 6 right-handed hitters. Holmes has struck out 32.2% of the right-handed hitters that he has faced this season (22.8% of LHHs)
- Zach Neto is day-to-day. If he sits, he is likely replaced by Kevin Newman who is a much, much weaker hitter.
- Holmes is currently second to Jacob deGrom in the Run The Sims projections.
- Atlanta has one of the highest team totals on the slate tonight. Tyler Anderson is reverse splits because of his 40+% change-up usage, which isn’t ideal for a RH heavy ATL lineup, but they are talented enough (and Anderson still isn’t great against RHHs) that it doesn’t matter too much.
- Do not sleep on Matt Olson. The RH power bats are obvious, but Olson hits left-handed pitching well with a .334 xwOBA and .216 xISO against LHP since last season while Anderson has allowed a .385 xwOBA and .270 xISO to LHHs this season.
Top Plays: Grant Holmes, Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson
Secondary Plays: Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, Stuart Fairchild
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-177) 7.5
Brandon Young at Jacob deGrom
Baltimore
- Brandon Young projects for a 20-22% strikeout percentage going forward with a 4.1 to 4.4 FIP in most public models. Texas’s offense has underperformed this season and is banged up with Wyatt Langford sidelined. Baltimore would also love for Young to work deep into this game after playing 11 innings last night. That said, Young only projects to be optimal about 5% of the time with about 4% ownership.
- If you’re playing Baltimore against deGrom it’s for a combination of three reasons:
- They have good, high-upside hitters at no ownership
- deGrom has a lot of ownership
- Texas has played four straight extra inning games so their bullpen could be tired. If deGrom gets hurt or ejected or, probably even less likely, sucks then the Orioles could pile on runs throughout the game. That said, the bullpen usage has been managed extremely well and there are no relievers that I would expect to be unavailable tonight.
- Overall, Baltimore is one of the lowest probability teams on the slate.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Gunnar Henderson
Texas
- Jacob deGrom has the highest projection on the slate in the Run The Sims model. He also has the highest ownership projection tonight at about 32% at a $10,300 salary. The matchup against Baltimore is not easy, but their active roster ranks 6th in K% against RHP this season. They are still without Adley Rutschman. Jordan Westburg has missed several games in a row and may or may not be in the lineup tonight as well.
- deGrom has taken a step back this season, dropping from a 31.8% K% last season to 25.9% this season with his Stuff+ falling from 116 to 108.6 and his Location+ falling from 113.5 to 110.1. Still, those are excellent numbers in general.
- Only three MLB starts for Brandon Young. Best to just target the best hitters on the Rangers if we are looking to stack them:
- Josh Smith: .351 xwOBa/.164 xISO
- Corey Seager: .413/.253
- Adolis Garcia: .333/.222
- Interesting note on Garcia is that Baltimore has been attacking him with nothing but fastballs. He saw 16 pitches last night (I think) and they were all fastballs. It was a very successful strategy until he launched a 3-run HR on the 16th one that he saw. Young only averages 93.5 MPH on his fastball, so he may not have the velo to exploit Garcia as easily as some other arms.
- There is massive stacking upside for Texas tonight after last night’s 11 inning game. Two of Baltimore’s best relievers (Keegan Akin and Felix Bautista) are almost definitely not available tonight after pitching back to back games. Seranthony Dominguez threw 30 pitches last night so they would probably rather not use him either. If Young struggles early, we could either see the Orioles just leave him in regardless of results or throw one of the long guys (Matt Bowman or Scott Blewett) to the wolves to eat innings instead.
Top Plays: Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager
Secondary Plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Josh Smith
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs (-175) 8
Gavin Williams at Matthew Boyd
Cleveland
- Not a ton to like here for Cleveland
- Brutal matchup for Gavin Williams as Chicago ranks 18th in K% and 7th in wRC+ against RHP this season. Wind is neutral so that’s a plus for the pitchers (or at least not a negative)
- Matthew Boyd has been good this season. As expected, righties have produced more power with a .163 xISO compared to .083 for lefties but it’s still not a great spot to target
- Jose Ramirez (.369 xwOBA/.215 xISO against LHP since last season) and Lane Thomas (.336/.151; only $3,200) look like the two bets CLE bats to target if you’re going that route.
- Johnathan Rodriguez and David Fry currently have the two highest pinch hit projections on the slate, which is another reason that the Guardians are unattractive.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Jose Ramirez, Lane Thomas
Chicago
- Matthew Boyd is projected for about 15% ownership with an 11% chance of being optimal at $9,000. He enters tonight’s game with a 22.3% K% and 4.00 xFIP. His unsustainable 2.65 ERA causes him to be a bit more expensive than he should be. The Guardians’ active roster ranks 5th in wRC+ and 21st in K% against LHP since the start of last season.
- There’s not much ownership coming into the Cubs which is always appealing in GPPs given their immense power and stolen base upside.
- 7 players on the team have at least 9 home runs this season and six have at least 7 stolen bases
- The issue is that they are expensive throughout their lineup. There are only two hitters in their projected lineup with a salary below $4,200. You will have to sacrifice to get to them as a stack if you’re going to stack them.
- Gavin Williams has allowed a .188 xISO to LHHs this season (.152 to RHHs) but also has a 26.4% K% against lefties compared to 19.8% against righties.
- Williams has only allowed 2 stolen bases in 80.2 innings pitched this season.
Top Plays: Matthew Boyd
Secondary Plays: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Tucker
Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies (+138) 11.5
Colton Gordon at Chase Dollander
Houston
- Colton Gordon has the best matchup possible as he faces the Rockies, but it is in Coors Field so that limits his projection. He has a 22% strikeout percentage through 40.2 IP this season. His command has been excellent with a 111.3 Location+ grade and his stuff has been close to average with a 98.9 Stuff+ grade. He is getting no ownership at $7,000 if you want to roll the dice in large field GPPs at no ownership. I obviously don’t have confidence in him, but I am intrigued if he is going to be unowned on a slate with very questionable pitching options.
- Houston should be the most popular team on the slate as they have the highest team total and only one hitter priced above $4,800.
- Dollander has good stuff, especially by Colorado standards, but he still has a 4.7 xFIP and 6.16 ERA through his first 62.1 IP with just a 17.9% strikeout percentage.
- RHHs have a .244 xISO and LHHs have a .220 xISO against Dollander so far. LHHs have only struck out 14.8% of the time while RHHs have struck out 21.8%
- Yainer Diaz (.193) and Christian Walker (.203) have the highest xISOs against RHP this season
Top Plays: Yainer Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker
Secondary Plays: Cooper Hummel, Mauricio Dubon, Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Victor Caratini, Colton Gordon
Colorado
- Colton Gordon has been vulnerable to RHHs so far, striking out 19.4% with a .328 xwOBA and .181 xISO against.
- Colorado has no lefties in the lineup (which means Ryan McMahon will most likely pinch hit for either Kyle Farmer or Orlando Arcia once Gordon is out of the game)
- Since last season:
- Hunter Goodman (.307 xwOBA/.206 xISO), Jordan Beck (.312 xwOBA/.192 xISO), Brenton Doyle (.328 xwOBA/.182 xISO), Michael Toglia (.333 xwOBA/.210 xISO) against LHP
Top Plays: Jordan Beck, Hunter Goodman
Secondary Plays: Tyler Freeman, Thairo Estrada, Brenton Doyle, Michael Toglia
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-127) 9
Hayden Birdsong at Zac Gallen
San Francisco
- Park upgrade for Giants
- Gallen has allowed a lot of power this season with a .230 xISO allowed to both sides of the plate
- Rafael Devers (.274), Heliot Ramos (.203) and Willy Adames (.205) have the best expected power numbers against RHP this season
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Rafael Devers, Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames
Arizona
- Zac Gallen has struggled this season, striking out just 20.8% of hitters with a 5.75 ERA. His 4.40 xFIP suggests at least some bad luck, however, and the Giants’ active roster ranks 18th in wRC+ and 13th in K%. Most importantly, Gallen is only $7,800 on a slate that doesn’t have many good pitchers. He is projected for about 12% ownership with about a 14% chance of being optimal.
- LHHs have a .371 xwOBA and .212 xISO against Hayden Birdsong this season. Ketel Marte has a .433 xwOBA and .312 xISO against RHP this season. Pavin Smith (high pinch hit risk) and Josh Naylor have power from the left side as well.
Top Plays: Zac Gallen
Secondary Plays: Ketel Marte
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (-138) 8
Michael Lorenzen at Emerson Hancock
Kansas City
- Usually on a slate where we are short on pitching, we can turn to T-Mobile Park for a couple of good options. Instead, we get Michael Lorenzen against Emerson Hancock.
- Michael Lorenzen is projected for about 6% ownership with a 10% chance of being optimal at $7,200. The park is great for pitching but the matchup is dangerous and Lorenzen isn’t particularly good.
- 2% K% and 4.45 xFIP this season
- SEA is 14th in K% and 5th in wRC+ against RHP this season
- Emerson Hancock doesn’t miss many bats and has allowed a .227 xISO to LHHs this season. The park mitigates that, but it’s still a high upside matchup for Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone.
- Hancock has only allowed a .139 xISO to RHHs this season. Bobby Witt, Jr., Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia are all playable but the park and mediocre power matchup limit their appeal somewhat.
- While the park sucks for offense, the Royals are a very cheap and low owned stack. Have some GPP interest given the quality of the bats and arms I can fit around them.
Top Plays: Bobby Witt, Jr.
Secondary Plays: Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone
Seattle
- Emerson Hancock is getting 10% ownership simply because he is $6,000 and the Royals have a modest 4.2 team total. Hancock has struck out just 17% of hitters this season with a 4.6 xFIP and 5.30 ERA. His median projection is decent for his salary, but I really don’t mind pivoting to some “riskier” options at SP2 in lineups where I have popular bats. There isn’t much of a threat of Hancock being the player you HAVE to have to win a slate- especially in a below average K matchup as well.
- Lorenzen has allowed a .188 xISO to LHHs and a .212 xISO to RHHs this season. The park will help him, but there is plenty of low owned power in the Mariners’ lineup
- Cal Raleigh, of course, is the top option with a .311 xISO against RHP this season.
Top Plays: Emerson Hancock I guess
Secondary Plays: Cal Raleigh, Jorge Polanco, Julio Rodriguez
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
Shane Smith at Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Chicago
- Shane Smith is kind of decent but the matchup against the Dodgers in LA is brutal and he’s not even particularly inexpensive at $7,700.
- White Sox have the lowest team total on the slate against Yamamoto.
- There is some cheap power/speed with Miguel Vargas/Chase Meidroth/Andrew Benintendi at the top of the order but certainly nothing to prioritize or be excited about.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: None
Dodgers
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto is projected to be one of the most popular pitchers tonight in a great matchup against the White Sox.
- 4% strikeout percentage is the highest on the slate. White Sox total is the lowest on the slate.
- Dodgers sometimes have a relatively short leash on him, but we have seen him face more batters recently. He has faced at least 23 batters in 6 of his last 8 games and one of the games he didn’t (his most recent where he only faced 16) was because of a rain delay.
- Shane Smith has held righties to a .323 xwOBA and .144 xISO with a 23% strikeout percentage. He has held lefties to a .330 xwOBA and .127 xISO with a 19% strikeout percentage
- Don’t just assume he is bad because he pitches for the White Sox. He isn’t great but he’s not bad either
- That said, the Dodgers are absurdly good and they’re in one of the best parks for home runs in baseball.
- Mookie Betts only has a .151 xISO against RHP this season as he has dealt with health issues/injuries but he is also only $4,500 as a result.
- Other than Betts and Tommy Edman (.149) the lowest xISO against RHP of anyone in the Dodgers’ projected starting lineup this season is Michael Conforto at .185
Top Plays: Yoshi Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy
Secondary Plays: Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Michael Conforto, Teoscar Hernandez
TOP OVERALL PLAYS
P: Jacob deGrom, Yoshi Yamamoto, Grant Holmes, Shane Baz
C: Yainer Diaz, Carlos Narvaez, Tyler Stephenson
1B: Christian Walker, Michael Toglia, Vinnie Pasquantino, Matt Olson
2B: Jose Altuve, Matt McLain, Thairo Estrada
3B: Isaac Paredes, Max Muncy (LAD), Abraham Toro
SS: Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Witt Jr., Mookie Betts
OF: Shohei Ohtani, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Jordan Beck, Ronald Acuna
Top Stacks: Houston, Boston, Dodgers