We have a 12 game MLB slate tonight with plenty of good pitching options and quality offenses to target. This article will analyze every team in a game by game format. Be sure to tune into the ShipMyMoney Show on the EndGame Syndicate YouTube channel at 4:30 PM EST for additional info closer to lock.
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San Diego Padres at New York Yankees (-101) 8.5
Michael King at Clarke Schmidt
Weather: Chance for rain. Looks okay right now. Keep an eye on it.
San Diego
- Michael King was impressive last season and has shown signs of improvement this season. Stuff+ grade has increased from 95.9 last season to 101.7 this season and his K% has climbed from 27.6 to 29.5 percent
- Projected to be slightly under-owned at about 15% on DK. There is a lot of volatility here that we can look to attack in GPPs because, while the Yankees’ offense is dangerous, they also are an above average K matchup.
- King is the third highest projected pitcher on the slate in the Run The Sims projections.
- Schmidt is a solid pitcher that doesn’t allow much power to either side of the plate. LHH have a .144 xISO with a 29.9% K% against him since last season while RHH have a 21.2% K% and .124 xISO
- Fernando Tatis, Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts look like the best bats from the Padres as usual, but none look like true priorities.
- Tatis stated that he wants to steal more bases this season and he has already nearly matched last season’s total. Schmidt has been good at preventing stolen bases so far in his career, however, allowing 5 in 85.1 innings pitched last season and 8 in 159 innings pitched in 2023.
Top Plays: Michael King
Secondary Plays: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill
New York
- Not much interest in Schmidt. Brutal strikeout matchup as Gavin Sheets’ 21.5% K% is the highest in the entire projected lineup against RHP since last season. Jackson Merrill is due back tonight as well.
- King has held RHH to a .124 xISO and LHH to a .137 xISO since last season. 25.7% K% against LHH and 30.8% against RHH. If you want some Aaron Judge go for it, but mostly uninterested in the Yankees on a slate with 11 other games.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Aaron Judge
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays (+109) 8
Zack Wheeler at Drew Rasmussen
Weather: Little bit of rain around. Should be fine.
Philadelphia
- Zack Wheeler is projected for about 22% ownership on DK at $9,700 and it appears warranted. He is our second highest projected pitcher and we have him projected to record more outs than any other pitcher on the slate. He has struck out 29.2% of hitters since last season and the Rays have the third highest strikeout percentage against RHP so far this season. We have a limited sample at this park but it has been very hitter-friendly. That is the only clear negative working against Wheeler.
- While it is a good park for offense, Rasmussen is very good at limiting power. He has held RHH to a .077 xISO and LHH to a .085 xISO since last season
- There’s nothing wrong with taking some GPP shots at the overall talent upside in the Phillies’ lineup, but nobody stands out as a great play given the matchup.
Top Plays: Zack Wheeler
Secondary Plays: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
Tampa Bay
- Drew Rasmussen is a viable SP2 in large field MME tournaments but that’s about it. There is plenty of other pitching to look to on this slate without taking on the Phillies in a hitter-friendly minor league stadium.
- Wheeler doesn’t have any real weaknesses, but the closest thing is a .167 xISO allowed to left-handed hitters. Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe have power from the left side, but they are still secondary plays at best in this matchup.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-209) 8.5
Andrew Abbott at Chris Sale
Weather: Good
Cincinnati
- Not much interest in Abbott at a salary north of $8k against the Braves
- Not much interest in the bats either against arguably the best pitcher on a 12-game slate. Chris Sale isn’t great at holding runners so there is stolen base upside for the Reds, but you have to get on base to be able to take advantage.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz
Atlanta
- Chris Sale is the highest projected pitcher on the slate and he is only $8,800. Sale has struck out 31.5 percent of hitters since last season with a 2.74 xFIP and 26.0% K-BB%
- Abbott has allowed a .198 xISO to RHH so far this season and a .184 xISO since the start of last season.
- Since 2023 against LHP:
- Austin Riley: .294 xISO in 283 PAs
- Marcell Ozuna: .253 xISO in 319 PAs
- Sean Murphy: .293 xISO in 186 PAs
- Ozzie Albies: .184 xISO in 271 Pas
- Austin Riley currently has the highest home run projection for any hitter on the slate.
- Since 2023 against LHP:
Top Plays: Chris Sale, Austin Riley
Secondary Plays: Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-152) 8
Justin Verlander at Colin Rea
Weather: No rain. No strong wind.
San Francisco
- Justin Verlander’s Stuff+, K% and fastball velo have all increased slightly since last season. He is affordable at $7,500. That said, he has a brutal matchup against a Cubs team that seems to put up 10 runs every game.
- Not much ownership coming into SF bats and, while it’s not a great spot with only about a 4.1 implied run total, they do look a little under-owned on DraftKings. This is an inexpensive lineup that has talent and will allow you to fill out the rest of your team with high-upside options.
- RHH have a .162 xISO and 20.2% K% against Rea since last season while LHH have an 18.2% K% and .192 xISO
- Mike Yastrzemski, Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Lamonte Wade all have an xISO of .180 or higher against RHP since last season.
- The Cubs have two LH relievers in their bullpen, but it is likely that the Giants’ lineup is RH heavy enough that it is difficult for the Cubs to match up with the lefties and force pinch hitters. For example, if Wade is sandwiched between Flores and Ramos on one side and Bailey and Koss on the other it is more difficult to bring in a lefty to face him than if he is hitting directly ahead of or behind another left-handed hitter. As a result, we have him with a relatively low 14% chance of being pinch-hit for.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Mike Yastrzemski
Chicago Cubs
- No interest in Rea.
- Not much ownership coming into Cubs bats. Nobody in particular stands out as having a great matchup, though Verlander has allowed more expected power to righties than lefties since last season which sets up nicely for Seiya Suzuki who is off to a fantastic start. Kyle Tucker is always a strong GPP play as well but no priorities here.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-221) 9
Sean Burke at Seth Lugo
Weather: Good
Chicago
- The White Sox are inexpensive. That is the extent of positive things that I have to say about the White Sox.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Andrew Benintendi (Q), Andrew Vaughn
Kansas City
- Seth Lugo is projected for about 11% ownership at $8,700 in a great matchup. The only negatives for Lugo are that he is relatively expensive and this is a bad park for getting strikeouts, but the park is baked into his actual numbers since he pitches roughly half of his games here. He has struck out 21.4 percent of hitters with a 3.86 xFIP since last season. The White Sox have the 7th highest K% against RHP so far this season. He is also good at holding runners which mitigates the White Sox speed if they do manage to get on base.
- Sean Burke has allowed a lot of expected power to RHH this season with a .231 ISO and .364 xISO. This park downplays home runs but is good for offense overall. Burke hasn’t allowed a stolen base yet this season in 33 innings pitched. He allowed 2 in 19 innings last season. It remains to be seen if he is good at controlling the running game, but it is worth noting that he is 6’6. Height tends to mean being slower to the plate.
- Bobby Witt Jr. sets up very nicely against a pitcher that has allowed a ton of power to RHH. Salvador Perez, Jonathan India and Maikel Garcia look good as well at price tags below $4,000 on DraftKings.
- Vinnie Pasquantino projects as a strong value from the left side at $3,400, but it is worth noting that he is off to an awful start with a 64 wRC+. The salary reflects that, however, and he is likely to finish the season as a well above average hitter.
Top Plays: Bobby Witt Jr.
Secondary Plays: Jonathan India, Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Seth Lugo
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers (-114) 8
Hayden Wesneski at Chad Patrick
Weather: N/A
Houston
- Hayden Wesneski is currently projected for about 21 percent ownership at $7,200 which is…surprising. Maybe it changes, maybe it doesn’t but it seems too high in a tough strikeout matchup. He is a solid pitcher with a 22.4% strikeout percentage and 3.84 xFIP since last season, but the Brewers have the 5th lowest strikeout percentage against RHP so far this season. He projects to be optimal 5-10% of the time so, if his ownership is still high by lock, I will likely look elsewhere in GPPs. If the ownership falls, then he is a viable SP2 given the cheap price tag and underlying talent.
- Houston bats look like a nice secondary stack against Patrick. In a limited sample, Patrick has allowed a .216 xISO to RHH this season (while holding LHH to just a .068 xISO). He has only thrown about 300 pitches to RHH and 230 to LHH so we shouldn’t read too much into the reverse splits, but he does rely heavily on a cut fastball which often plays better against opposite handed hitters.
- Milwaukee has the 7th best park factor for home runs over the last three seasons.
- There isn’t much RH power (or LH power without Alvarez) in the Astros’ lineup, but Christian Walker is an exception. He has a .220 xISO in 509 PAs against RHP since last season. He is tied for the 10th highest home run projection on the slate.
- Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and Yainer Diaz are all relatively inexpensive and project as quality value plays.
Top Plays: Christian Walker
Secondary Plays: Hayden Wesneski, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Yainer Diaz, Jose Altuve
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-164) 8.5
Cade Povich at Pablo Lopez
Weather: Good
Baltimore
- Revenge game for Cade Povich at just $5,000. That said, I don’t really care because outside of large field GPP lineups where I really need a punt SP2 I can find better options.
- Park downgrade and a tough matchup for Orioles’ bats. They have a number of guys in their lineup that have hit into bad luck so far this season, but it’s pretty unlikely that this is the spot they get right.
- From a GPP upside standpoint, the Orioles have some appeal, however, because of their salaries and raw talent. The top of the order is expensive but, once you get beyond Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman (who has been incredibly unlucky and is slowly seeing his salary drop), there is plenty of cheap power. Lopez hasn’t struggled with power overall since the start of last season, but lefties have done damage so far this season with an xISO north of .200. If you want to play that angle, there is an abundance of LH power in this lineup and the Twins only have one left-handed reliever.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Jackson Holliday, Ryan O’Hearn
Minnesota
- Pablo Lopez is projected for about 10% ownership which is perfectly in line with how often he projects to be optimal tonight at $9,000. He has struck out 25.3% of hitters since the start of last season. The Orioles’ active roster has the 6th highest strikeout rate against RHP this season at 23.3 percent. They also have a 129 wRC+ despite a number of their hitters hitting into bad luck.
- Povich has allowed a .194 xISO to RHH since last season. There is plenty of RH power in this Twins lineup as all of Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Carlos Correa, Ty France and Royce Lewis have an xISO above .175 against LHP since 2023.
- Jeffers stands out as a particularly strong value as he is likely to leadoff at $3,700 at a weak catcher position.
Top Plays: Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton
Secondary Plays: Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Ty France, Brooks Lee
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (+100) 7
Paul Skenes at Matthew Liberatore
Weather: Good
Pittsburgh
- Paul Skenes is projected for about 20% ownership at $10,000 and that is reasonable based on about a 15% chance of being in the optimal lineup. It goes without saying that he has a massive ceiling whenever he takes the mound, though his strikeout numbers are down so far this season. Skenes has only struck out 24.8 percent of hitters this season compared to 33.1 percent last season and his fastball velo has dipped a bit from 98.8 mph down to 98.0. His Stuff+ grade has actually increased slightly, however, from 108.5 to 109.1. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle as he was unlikely to sustain a 33% strikeout percentage but he is also probably much better than his strikeout rate so far this season. The Cardinals have the 2nd lowest strikeout percentage against RHP so far this season so this may not be the spot where he bounces all the way back. Still, he is one of the most talented pitchers on the slate and we have 24 offenses to find value bats from so it should be pretty easy to afford him.
- Pirates are a decent value stack as, outside of Oneil Cruz, their most expensive hitter on DraftKings is $4,400 Andrew McCutchen. The next most expensive hitter is Bryan Reynolds at just $3,700. The park isn’t great for offense and the matchup is mediocre, but they could be a useful secondary stack that allows you to fit expensive pitchers and/or a second more expensive offense.
- Liberatore has allowed a .171 xISO to RHH since last season. The Pirates don’t have any elite power bats from the right side, but McCutchen, Reynolds and Joey Bart all have an xISO between .165 and .185 against LHP since 2023.
Top Plays: Paul Skenes
Secondary Plays: Joey Bart, Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Ke’Bryan Hayes
St. Louis
- Matthew Liberatore has shown improvement this season as his Stuff+ grade has jumped from 96.6 last season to 102.4 this season. His strikeout percentage has ticked up from 21.9% to 22.6% and his fastball velo has gone from 93.8 to 94.3 mph. There are too many other pitchers on this slate for Liberatore to be any sort of priority, but he is someone to keep an eye on going forward.
- I’m good with not targeting hitters against Paul Skenes on a 12 game slate.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Matthew Liberatore
Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies (+151) 9.5
Jackson Jobe at Chase Dollander
Weather: Looks like the riskiest game of the day. Definitely will need to pay close attention closer to lock. If I had to make a decision right now I don’t think I would play it because there are just so many other games to choose from. But obviously it is a great offensive environment so hopefully the forecast improves.
Detroit
- Chase Dollander is probably going to be good eventually. The 2023 first round pick basically jumped straight from AA to the Majors, making just one start at AAA. That said, “eventually” is not “right now” and right now he looks like a pitcher that we want to target in Coors Field. He has been unable to limit quality contact through his first five starts, allowing a .338 xISO to LHH and a .286 xISO to RHH. These numbers are likely to improve just based on how extraordinarily bad they are, but that doesn’t mean it needs to happen today.
- Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene are extremely strong plays at salaries below $5,000 in Coors Field. Carpenter has a .322 xISO against RHP since last season while Greene’s is .233. The Rockies also only have one left-handed reliever in their bullpen.
- The Spencer Torkelson breakout seems to be here as he has a 151 wRC+ through 35 games this season with a .306 ISO (despite playing his home games in a tough park for hitting home runs). His .407 xwOBA is actually higher than his .381 wOBA so far this season as well.
- Jackson Jobe is a top pitching prospect facing a terrible offense at $6,800. He is a viable secondary SP2 if you need to save salary, but pitching in Coors isn’t easy for anyone. So far, he has struggled with just a 17.6 percent strikeout percentage and 13.7 percent walk percentage through his first five starts this season.
Top Plays: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres
Secondary Plays: Jackson Jobe, any other hitters
Colorado
- The Rockies aren’t getting much ownership since there are 23 other offenses on the slate and they absolutely suck. That said, they are playing in Coors Field against a rookie pitcher who has struggled to keep runners off base so far. There is some upside here since the Colorado hitters are so inexpensive. You can stack a side of Coors and have the best pitching and one-off plays around it.
- Brenton Doyle, Ryan McMahon, Hunter Goodman and Jordan Beck are the priorities if you are looking to go to Colorado.
- RHH have a .189 xISO and LHH have a .112 xISO against Jobe through 24 innings this season. LHH have also struck out 26.8 percent of the time compared to 11.5 percent of the time for RHH.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Brenton Doyle, Ryan McMahon, Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (+102) 9
Jose Urena at Tyler Anderson
Weather: The game is in SoCal.
Toronto
- 4th best park for home runs over the last three seasons and the Blue Jays are relatively inexpensive and low-owned. The matchup against Anderson isn’t perfect as he is not a terrible pitcher, but all things considered it looks like the Jays are going under-owned right now as most of their lineup is projected for 5% ownership or less.
- Anderson has allowed a .159 xISO to RHH since last season and .167 so far this season. He features a change-up that limits RH production, but there are a lot of good RH in this lineup that I’m willing to take my chances on.
- Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Anthony Santander all have an xISO of at least .195 against LHP since 2023. George Springer is at .171 over that time but is in the midst of a career resurgence so far this season with a 166 wRC+ and .202 ISO that are backed up by a .384 xwOBA.
- Andres Gimenez has been terrible against LHP in his career, but Tyler Anderson allows a ton of power to LHH and Gimenez has been good overall this season. At $4,000 and a weak second base position, I like including Gimenez in stacks.
Top Plays: Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Anthony Santander, George Springer
Secondary Plays: Andres Gimenez, Alejandro Kirk
Los Angeles
- Jose Urena is making the start for the Blue Jays tonight. He was kind of decent last season, particularly against RHH who he held to about a .130 xISO. That said, he doesn’t get strikeouts, he is pitching in a hitter-friendly park, and he doesn’t project to be any good going forward. The Angels should be one of the more popular stacks tonight.
- A negative for the Angels is that they really don’t have any left-handed power which is what Urena has consistently struggled with. That said, RHH have a .180 xISO against him since 2023 despite only a .132 xISO last season.
Top Plays: Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe, Jorge Soler
Secondary Plays: Kyren Paris, Nolan Schanuel
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) 9
David Peterson at Zac Gallen
Weather: N/A
New York
- Relatively high team total for the Mets despite the matchup against Gallen.
- Juan Soto’s .362 wOBA is the lowest of his career, but his .422 xwOBA is higher than it was in 2023 or 2022. He is going to put up better numbers soon and we are getting him at one of his lowest price points.
- As a team, the Mets’ .356 xwOBA is tied with the Dodgers for the best in baseball.
- In addition to Soto, Brandon Nimmo has hit into bad luck this season with a .353 xwOBA compared to a .302 actual wOBA.
Top Plays: Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor
Secondary Plays: Mark Vientos, Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Alvarez
Arizona
- Zac Gallen is a good pitcher overall with a 25.3% K% and 3.73 xFIP since last season. He has his work cut out for him tonight, however, as the Mets rank 25th in K% against RHP this season with a 117 wRC+.
- The D-Backs look like an underowned offense tonight along with the Mets. David Peterson is a solid pitcher, and has held RHH to a .143 xISO since last season, but there is a lot of power and speed in the Arizona lineup.
- Lourdes Gurriel has a .196 xISO in 365 PAs against LHP since 2023. Ketel Marte has a .228 xISO in 422 PAs and Eugenio Suarez has a .203 xISO in 382 PAs over that time. Randal Grichuk carries significant pinch hit risk, but he also has a .217 xISO in 360 PAs over that span.
Top Plays: Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez
Secondary Plays: Randal Grichuk, Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel
Seattle Mariners at Homeless Athletics (-116) 10
Emerson Hancock at Jeffrey Springs
Weather: Good
Seattle
- We don’t know exactly what this park is yet, but we can confidently say that it is a park upgrade for Seattle bats given that their home park is the worst place to hit in baseball and the A’s stadium is probably average at worst for offense.
- Jeffrey Springs is a pretty good pitcher and has never allowed a ton of power thanks to a quality change-up that mitigates RH bats. Still, this game has the highest total on the slate and the Mariners have plenty of power.
- Since 2023 against LHP:
- Julio Rodriguez: .200 xISO in 371 PAs
- Cal Raleigh: .252 xISO in 324 PAs
- Mitch Garver: .200 xISO in 281 PAs
- Randy Arozarena (Q): .212 ISO in 360 PAs
- Springs has also allowed 12(!) stolen bases in 34.1 innings pitched this season.
- Shea Langeliers was good at throwing out baserunners in all of his previous seasons but has been a disaster this year allowing 33 stolen bases with only 5 caught stealing.
- Most of the Mariners’ lineup has at least some stolen base ability, even Cal Raleigh.
- Since 2023 against LHP:
Top Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena (Q), J.P. Crawford
Secondary Plays: Mitch Garver, Ben Williamson
Athletics
- Springs is currently projected for nearly 20% ownership on DraftKings. Like Wesneski, I suspect that number comes down by lock. If it doesn’t I would rather roll the dice on other SP2s. If it does, then Springs looks like a secondary option as he is about 5-10% to be optimal at $7,600. The salary is appealing for his talent level, but the matchup and park are both scary.
- Emerson Hancock has only struck out 15.6 percent of hitters since last season. He has drastic reverse splits when it comes to power numbers. RHH have a .239 xISO and .267 ISO against him compared to a .131 xISO and .103 actual ISO for lefties. We can still look to some Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom from the left side, but I really like taking shots at Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers.
Top Plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers
Secondary Plays: Jeffrey Springs, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom