By Mike Alexander
Previously, we took a look at each team’s weighted three-year pace to get a base for projecting 2021 data. The next step is to carefully tweak those baselines for certain teams. We don’t want to go too far out of our lane falling for narratives. That’s one of the easiest fantasy mistakes to make. Coachspeak, rosy beat reporters, and players themselves can be unreliable sources. Here are some offenses that I find a change in projected pace necessary for, however.
- Arizona Cardinals
Year one under Kliff Kingsbury with a rookie QB was 2019. The Cards played fast at times but really put their foot on the gas in year two, 2020, for both coach and QB. It would be a mistake not to project them in the top 3 around the 67 plays per game they reached in 2020.
- Buffalo Bills
The light bulb finally flashed for both the Buffalo play callers and Josh Allen in 2020. They’ve been realizing that passing in game-neutral situations with a talented QB was optimal and their overall rushing fell to 40% of plays. That started in 2019 and laid the groundwork for Allen’s 2020 breakout. With that in mind, their personnel moves, and offseason quotes it’s fairly safe to assume a 2021 run/pass split similar to 2020’s.
- Carolina Panthers
We saw some building blocks from OC Joe Brady in his first NFL go-round in 2020. Key injuries, as well as limited QB play from Teddy Bridgewater, may have kept his offense from reaching its full potential. Pace and big plays were a hallmark of Brady’s LSU offense. Sam Darnold may have his own limitations but it’s possible he has some of the tools for Brady to open up the full playbook this season and play faster than the 62 plays per game they managed last year.
- Tennessee Titans
The Titans are a wildcard. They clearly want to run the ball and play defense. That defense part was their major problem last season. They ran 8.6% more plays in 2020 (1031 up from 949). That was mostly due to chasing points. If Mike Vrabel could have his way they’d likely be back in the pace basement instead of edging into the top half. There’s a load of fantasy assets that would be left depending on atypical efficiency in that case.
- New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles
Both teams are likely to have a new quarterback who’s going to get designed rushes. It’s hard to say exactly what that’s going to look like but it’s safe to skew the run/pass split towards rushing some as well as eat into the RB carries. That’s not exactly great for any non-QB fantasy asset.
