By Megan Shoup:
Have you ever played the Tiers contests on DraftKings? If not, could I interest you in a game that you don’t have to worry about salaries or defenses? You literally just need to pick the highest scoring player in each tier. Ah, but it’s not that easy! The Tiers format has its own strategies and nuances. I covered 3 reasons to play the Tiers game and 5 strategies to have an edge on the field in the very first Tiers for Fears on the Mayo Media Network.
But the best part is we can use Run the Sims tools for extra leverage against our competition. The Run the Sims Percentile Projections and Rangefinder tools are excellent tools to look at ceiling outcome opportunities and help make 2 v 2 player decisions. So let’s take a look at Week 1 on Tiers.
TIER 1:
Strategy:
In the early tiers, I’m not worried about ownership. I want to pick the player that I think has the highest ceiling. EXCEPT when I see a huge ownership leverage point. If I see ownership is going to be high on a player that I think is less likely to reach the ceiling that week, then that can be a strategic fade in the Tiers game.
Core Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray
GPP Sprinkle/Hedge: Russell Wilson
Fade: Josh Allen
It sounds insane to fade Josh Allen. But I think he’s going to be the one of the top two highest owned QBs in this tier. And while I know the Bills pass at an exceptionally high rate, I think the Steelers may be more run heavy this year with Najee Harris. So that may slow the game down and the Steelers still have a good defense. I just don’t see Allen having a ceiling performance in this game. And if he doesn’t, you will gain massive leverage on the field by fading him.
For Mahomes and Murray, its quite simple. They have the two highest projected ceilings in our Percentile Projections tool. And they are both in games with higher game totals that I think are likely to shootout.
As for Russell Wilson, he always has that boom potential and will be the lowest owned QB in this tier by a wide margin. So I’ll take a couple shots on Wilson in case they “Let Russ Cook” Week 1.
TIER 2:
Strategy:
Just like Tier 1, I’m not worried about ownership here. I am focusing on players with the highest projected ceiling in good game scripts.
Core Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara
GPP Sprinkle/Hedge: Derrick Henry
Fade: Travis Kelce
My core plays are the three running backs who always have the potential for a ceiling game, and week 1 sets up well for all of them. Again, I used the Percentile Projections tool to help make these decisions.
I always play a little of Derrick Henry, because it’s always in the range of outcomes for him to have that 160 yard & 3 TD game. But I like the Titans passing offense the week, so this is more of a hedge play.
I love Travis Kelce this week and I’m playing him plenty in Classic contests. But I just don’t think he would hit his ceiling outcome near as often as these stud running backs.
TIER 3:
Strategy:
In Tiers 1-4, I’m not worried about ownership. I am using Percentile Projections tool to find the players with the best ceilings.
Core Plays: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley
GPP Sprinkle/Hedge: DK Metcalf
Fade: Nick Chubb
I love all three of Adams, Hill and Ridley this week. So this was an easy decision for me, and I’ll be rotating these three wide receivers as my Tier 3 play. If I play a low owned Russell Wilson, I may hedge and pair him with a low owned DK Metcalf.
I just don’t think the game script fits for a Nick Chubb ceiling game against the Chiefs. Also, when you use the Rangefinder tool to make 2 v 2 decisions, Nick Chubb comes in at a much lower win rate then these other receivers.
TIER 4:
Strategy:
In Tiers 1-4, I’m not worried about ownership. I am using Percentile Projections tool to find the players with the best ceilings.
Core Plays: Stefon Diggs, Deandre Hopkins
GPP Sprinkle/Hedge: James Robinson, Justin Jefferson
Fade: Jonathan Taylor
Let’s be honest, Stefon Diggs and Deandre Hopkins easily could have been in Tier 3. So getting them in Tier 4 feels like a steal. They have the highest projected ceilings and I absolutely love the game environment for Hopkins. The Titans/Cardinals game has one of the highest totals and is one of my favorite games to stack this week. For Diggs, just because I faded Josh Allen in Tier 1, does not mean I have to fade his receiver. When the Bills faced the Steelers last year, Diggs had over 32 DK points, while Allen had just over 19 DK points.
James Robinson and Justin Jefferson both will go lower owned in this tier. When people are talking about the Jaguars receivers and Dalvin Cook, this is an opportunity to flip the script.
For Jonathan Taylor, I need to see this Colts offense first. And if they are playing from behind, I’m worried Nyheim Hines could take work from Taylor.
TIER 5:
Strategy:
Here’s where I start trying to use ownership to leverage more. But I’m looking for QBs in high total games.
Core Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill
GPP Sprinkle/Hedge: Matt Ryan
Fades: Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins and Jalen Hurts
Narrative: Always play an angry Aaron Rodgers. That was a profitable strategy last year, and I’m not abandoning it to kick off week 1. As I mentioned, I love the Titans/Cardinals game, so I love Ryan Tannehill’s ceiling here.
Matt Ryan is going to be very low owned and plays in a high pace offense against a weak Eagles defense. So I’m going to take a couple shots with Ryan.
I am fading Herbert and Cousins because I don’t think they have the right game environments to hit their ceiling. For Jalen Hurts, I think he may be the highest owned QB in this tier. So just like in Tier 1, this is a great ownership leverage play. I am not as bullish on Hurts as most, and I can see many paths to him not reaching his ceiling. So just like Allen, if he isn’t the highest scoring QB in this tier, I’m gaining a lot of leverage against the field.
TIER 6:
Strategy:
In this tier, I targeted players in high totals or in target condensed offenses.
Core Plays: A.J. Brown
GPP Sprinkle/Hedge: Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen
Fades: Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, George Kittle
A.J. Brown is my favorite core play because similar to Hopkins in Tier 4, he easily could have been in a higher tier and I love that game to target. McLaurin and Allen are playing in the same game. And while it’s not a high total game, these are both target condensed offenses. So both players could have a high score on volume.
In the later tiers, I try to fade more players to make the combos more effective. I fade players in these tiers, whether it is injury concerns, high ownership, or matchup.
TIER 7:
Strategy:
In this tier, I see a lot of opportunity for a couple players.
Core Plays: Joe Mixon, Najee Harris
GPP Sprinkle/Hedge: Julio Jones, Adam Thielen
Fade: Tyler Lockett, Miles Sanders, Raheem Mostert, Saquon Barkley
I see an incredible opportunity for Joe Mixon week 1. I think the Bengals may lean on the run more as the ease Joe Burrow back from injury. And even if the Bengals are trailing, Mixon won’t lose work to Gio Bernard anymore. If you use the Rangefinder tool, Joe Mixon blows out the competition in the win rate. Najee Harris looks to have a full workhorse role for the Steelers, so sign me up for that opportunity as well. And I sound like a broken record, but I love the Titans/Cardinals game for Julio Jones. Just like Justin Jefferson earlier, I think Thielen will be very low owned, so I’ll sprinkle him in some as well.
In the later tiers, I try to fade more players to make the combos more effective. I fade players in these tiers, whether it is injury concerns, high ownership, or matchup.
TIER 8:
Strategy:
Especially in Tier 8, I’m looking for those low owned gems that are not being talked about enough this week. Because no one in this Tier is “safe”.
Core Plays: Corey Davis, Robbie Anderson
GPP Sprinkle/Hedge: Antonio Gibson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Fades: Miles Gaskin, Mike Davis, Tee Higgins, Kyle Pitts
I love the Over in the Jets/Panthers game. So if it ends up being a sneaky shootout, I could get Davis and Anderson in great spots at low ownership. The Jets are also very thin at receiver, which provides a nice opportunity for Corey Davis with his new team.
Both Antonio Gibson and CEH easily could have been in Tier 7. They both have high touchdown equity and should have a solid amount of touches.
In the later tiers, I try to fade more players to make the combos more effective. I fade players in these tiers, whether it is injury concerns, high ownership, or matchup.
I hope you enjoyed the very first Tiers break down! If you prefer the video version, check out the Tiers for Fears Week 1 Show on the Mayo Media Network! Good luck in Week 1 and I hope to see you in the big $5 Tiers Flea Flicker tournament on DraftKings!
