By Mike Alexander
One of my favorite offseason exercises each summer has been to look at the pace of play for each offense. RTS headman, Justin Freeman, put me onto this a few years ago by sharing his tendency worksheet. That was the year before Patrick Mahomes went nuts. I drafted Mahomes everywhere I could based sheerly on the Andy Reid offense and what the QB commanding it profiled to produce. It can also help to spot ADP traps that end up overly dependent on TDs on too few targets or carries. Quite simply, it can be a very fruitful exercise. Below are the team by team breakdowns based on their current coaching staff. The weighting is 50/30/20% towards the most recent year.
Here is a team by team look at coaches with newcomers in red.
A few of my takeaways on teams in flux:
- Arizona got their engine revved up last season. I’d throw out most of the weighting and use a number close to 2020. They’ve been improving each year under Kingsbury.
- Will Atlanta be able to move away from being one of the higher play-per-game teams? That depends on run game success and defense. There are parts on both sides of the ball. It wouldn’t shock me if they had some success.
- Even with Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, and Ben DiNucci starting games under center the Cowboys were full throttle with 1113 plays. Blame the defense, which they haven’t sufficiently addressed in all likelihood. Dak and Co. are wheels up again in 2021.
- There’s a good amount we don’t know about the new Detroit regime with Dan Campbell getting his first honest shot at shaping an organization. If the kneecapping quotes are any indication he’ll want to deliver body blows via running the ball. Keeping the ball out of Jared Goff’s hands is understandable.
- Despite a pace that bends towards efficiency many Packer weapons produce well in fantasy. They’re all heavily dependent on touchdowns. That’s a dangerous way to make a living.
- The Saints’ already slowly efficient offense could continue to tick methodically if Tayson Hill wins the starting QB job and adds his rushing dimension. It could also go the other way should Jameis Winston win the job and start chucking the rock.
- At what point do we worry that Joe Judge is simply over-matched as an NFL coach. I know, hard to believe it could happen with Jason Garrett as his OC but the Giants ran a second to last 948 plays in his first season. They added shiny toys to the offense but failed to do anything to shore up what’s been their problem for the better part of a decade: the offensive line. Maybe Nate Solder returns from his opt-out year and helps but that’s entirely un-projectable. It won’t hurt getting Saquon Barkley back either, I suppose.
- One major wildcard is where Tennessee will fall pace-wise. They want to be in the 59 play per game range when they play any actual defense. I’m not sure their defense got any better, though. It could look much more like the 64 play pace they set last season. Especially considering the addition of Julio Jones to the passing attack.
- The Vikings have been alternating a slower 60 play per game pace every other year with being forced to run more plays due to an assortment of issues. We’re due for the slower offense in the pattern. That has no statistical basis but it’s tough to ignore the desire to run the ball and grind the clock with fewer plays.
